Published in Analytical Articles

By Brenda Shaffer

November 25, 2020, the CACI Analyst

The security architecture emerging in the South Caucasus following the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan led to significant changes for the region’s three main powers:  Russia and Turkey gained increased power in the region, while Iran’s leverage in the region declined. The war outcomes also strengthened domestic challenges from Iran’s large ethnic Azerbaijani community, which opposed Tehran’s support for Armenia in the war. 

 

 

 

 

Published in Analytical Articles

By Emil Avdaliani

November 24, 2020, the CACI Analyst

In recent years, China has made significant economic inroads into Central Asia. A recently opened new transportation route linking Xinjiang to Uzbekistan could have large geopolitical repercussions. Although many questions remain as to how effective the corridor will be, particularly as the Kyrgyz section of the railway is still not completed, its likely continuation is via the Caspian towards the Black Sea ports. The route, a part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), indicates the project’s success in Central Asia, which will be stoking apprehensions in Moscow.

 

 

 

 

Published in Analytical Articles

By John C. K. Daly

November 19, 2020, the CACI Analyst

The year 2020 is proving to be inordinately arduous for Turkmenistan, inflicted with a multitude of problems including the Covid-19 pandemic, plummeting natural gas prices and increasing concerns about rising violence in neighboring Afghanistan. Complicating the Turkmen government’s response to these crises is the country’s relative isolation imposed by its internationally recognized policy of strict neutrality. Given the transnational nature of these issues, the Turkmen government is fitfully readjusting its domestic and foreign policies to cope, as the threats are both internal and regional. The Turkmen government is increasingly aware that Turkmenistan cannot unilaterally resolve these threats and is attempting to devise international outreach programs for assistance, a significant deviation from its previous isolationist nationalist policies. 

 

 

 

 

Published in Analytical Articles

By Natalia Konarzewska 

November 16, 2020, the CACI Analyst

For the first time in the country’s history, Georgia’s ruling party has secured a third consecutive term in the parliamentary elections on October 31. Many observers termed the vote pivotal as it was held under the freshly introduced predominantly proportional voting system, expected to break Georgian Dream’s (GD) tight grip on power, and amidst the unprecedented health crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic. The opposition has refused to accept the results due to a large number of irregularities and pledged to boycott the new convocation of parliament. 

 

 

 

 

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Op-ed S. Enders Wimbish, US withdrawal from Afghanistan spells dangerous geopolitical realignments, The Hill, April 2, 2021.  

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Kazakhstan's Role in International Mediation under First President Nursultan Nazarbayev, November 2020.

Book S. Frederick Starr, Eldar Ismailov, Nazim Muzaffarli, Basic Principles for the Rehabilitation of Azerbaijan’s Post-Conflict Territories, 2010.

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, How Did Armenia So Badly Miscalculate Its War with Azerbaijan? The National Interest, November 14, 2020.

Op-ed Svante E. Cornell, Halting the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan: Russian Peacekeeping is not the Solution Washington Times, October 20, 2020.

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Can America Stop a Wider War between Armenia and Azerbaijan? The National Interest, October 5, 2020.

Article S. Frederick Starr, America Inches Toward a Serious Central Asia Strategy AFPC Defense Dossier, June 3, 2020.

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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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