By Armen Grigoryan
September 25, 2017, the CACI Analyst
Whereas the Armenian government cautiously seeks opportunities to maintain and develop its relations with the West, the incumbent administration’s main priority is to maintain its own political and economic interests. It therefore strives to avoid internal instability or hostile reactions from Russia that could jeopardize the administration’s continued rule, as well as reforms that could endanger the oligarchic system’s grip on the economy. Despite the government’s official statements, the signing of a pivotal partnership agreement with the EU still depends on these priorities.
By Surayya Mammadova
September 12, 2017, the CACI Analyst
Prior to the 2015 Riga summit, Azerbaijan began to distance itself from EU partnership initiatives. Responding to criticism on crackdowns that intensified since 2013, the country adopted an increasingly anti-Western rhetoric in its foreign policy. Since then, the geopolitical and economic situation in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus has become more complicated and unpredictable, forcing both the EU and Azerbaijan to reevaluate their strategic priorities. Negotiations on a new partnership agreement began in February 2017, during Ilham Aliyev’s long awaited visit to Brussels, and the parties plan to finalize a draft agreement by November. Although Azerbaijani and EU interests align in some areas, issues such as political and security cooperation could become stumbling blocks once again.
By Sudha Ramachandran
September 7, 2017, the CACI Analyst
With its shuttle diplomacy between Pakistan and Afghanistan to ease tensions between the two neighbors, China has expanded its peacemaking role in the Afghan conflict. Successful peacemaking is vital for ensuring stability in the region, which in turn is needed to secure the future of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. It will require Beijing to move beyond offering Kabul and Islamabad economic incentives to address the core issue underlying Afghanistan-Pakistan estrangement: alleged support to acts of terror directed against each other. Given its own strong interests in undertaking peacemaking, can China be an honest broker?
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.