Pakistan and Afghanistan Beyond 2014
PAKISTAN AND AFGHANISTAN BEYOND 2014
by Rizwan Zeb (the 02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Pakistan understands and realizes that a stable Afghanistan is key to its own stability. A number of issues are of crucial importance for the improvement of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations: the Durand line, the return of Afghan refugees, the Indian presence in Afghanistan, and the implementation of various pipeline projects transporting Central Asian oil and gas through Gwadar. Above all, Pakistan wants a stable and friendly Afghanistan which does not pose a threat or allow any other state to use its territory against Pakistan. After 2014, will Pakistan and Afghanistan develop a neighborly relationship or will Afghanistan become another theatre for India-Pakistan rivalry?
Pakistan Hands Over Development of Gwadar Port to China
PAKISTAN HANDS OVER DEVELOPMENT OF GWADAR PORT TO CHINA
by Naveed Ahmad (02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Pakistan has handed over the management of its southeastern Gwadar deep-sea port to the China Overseas Port Holdings after failing to turn the strategically located port into a financial success. With an outpost on the entry to the risk-prone Strait of Hormuz, China not only secures its petroleum supply through the shortest land route but also mounts a challenge to the U.S. and India in the Arabian Sea. Pakistan’s reliance on China as a partner has increased significantly during its post-9/11 engagement with the U.S. While Islamabad seems relieved by its belated act, Beijing seems to shift some pressure it has been withstanding in South China Sea.
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Gakayev Brothers Killed in Chechnya
GAKAYEV BROTHERS KILLED IN CHECHNYA
by Emil Souleimanov (the 02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since January 17, a special operation has been underway in the wooded mountains of Chechnya’s Shatoy and Vedeno districts. Following a week of intense fighting, the infamous Gakayev brothers, in command of the Southeast Chechen wing of the Caucasus Emirate, were killed, along with around eleven members of their group including emir Abuyezid Jabrailov. The recent success of the kadyrovtsy units is likely to considerably weaken the Chechen sector of the North Caucasus insurgency, even though it is still premature to anticipate the end of hostilities in this war-torn region of Russia.
Azerbaijan Breaks Through into Eastern Europe
AZERBAIJAN BREAKS THROUGH INTO EASTERN EUROPE
Stephen Blank (02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On December 7, 2012 Russia began construction of its South Stream gas pipeline. Earlier in 2012 the European consortium behind the Nabucco pipeline formally submitted a revised scenario called Nabucco West to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan and Turkey announced plans to build the Transanatolian pipeline or TANAP from the Shah Deniz gas field to Turkey’s border with Bulgaria. Nabucco West would then take gas all the way into Central Europe. Hence, Azerbaijan is now emerging as a potential major gas supplier to Eastern European states, whose governments are now eagerly courting Azerbaijan. This also means that Azerbaijan is emerging as Russia’s rival in this market.
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Joint Center Publications
Analysis Niklas Swanström and Leah Oppenheimer, "Invisible Ink: Looking for the Lost Trade between China, Russia, and Central Asia", ISDP Policy Brief, 13 March 2013. 
New Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr with Adib Farhadi, Finish the Job: Jump-Start the Afghan Economy, December 2012.
Conference Report Cheryl Benard, Eli Sugarman, and Holly Rehm, Cultural Heritage vs. Mining on the New Silk Road? Finding Technical Solutions for Mes Aynak and Beyond (in cooperation with the Alliance for the Restoration of Cultural Heritage) December 2012.
Article Svante E. Cornell, "The 'Afghanization of the North Caucasus: Causes and Implications of a Changing Conflict", in Stephen Blank, ed., Russia's Homegrown Insurgency: Jihad in the North Caucasus, Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2012.