Published in Feature Articles

By Nargis Kassenova

The dramatic events of 2022 - the January unrest in Kazakhstan and Russia’s war against Ukraine - upended the status quo in Kazakhstan-Russia relations. Astana must now address both long-standing vulnerabilities—security, political, and economic—and new pressures in areas such as inter-elite relations (as they shape up in the process of "denazarbayevization"), nuclear energy, and history writing. The Tokayev government seeks to accommodate Russia as much as possible while advancing Kazakhstan’s sovereignty, which requires constant adjustments and trade-offs.

Read Kazakhstan-Russia Relations After 2022: Sources of Contention, Points of Pressure

Published in Feature Articles

By Gabriel Chubinidze and Stephen F. Jones

Ivanishvili is the linchpin in the current Georgian political system.  If we are to understand the nature of Georgia’s political system today, we need to examine Ivanishvili's personality and history more closely.  In Georgia, outsized personalities have always played a decisive role in politics and have consistently abused their power.  Ivanishvili is no different. But we argue that he has gone beyond his predecessors, Eduard Shevardnadze and Mikheil Saakashvili, to create an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists. Currently, almost all of Georgia’s major opposition party leaders are in prison.  We call it a quasi-dictatorship. In 2025 Ivanishvili’s Georgia has moved closer to the model of Alexandr Lukashenko in Belarus than the illiberal model established in Hungary of Victor Orban.

Read Bidzina Ivanishvili: Governing from the Shadows 

Published in Feature Articles

By Svante E. Cornell

The development of a spirit of regional cooperation has been the main political development in the Greater Central Asian region in recent years. This process is accelerating and taking place at different levels. Primary among the initiatives underway is the deepening of cooperation among the five states of Central Asia, where the consultative meetings of Heads of State are being insti- tutionalized and expanded into cooperation on the ministerial and parliamentary level, governed by strategies of cooperation adopted by regional leaders. Beyond this, more intensive structures of cooperation have been set up between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the leading states of the region. Furthermore, trilateral mechanisms have emerged, including one centered on the Fer- ghana Valley involving Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, as well as a Trans-Caspian tri- lateral involving Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. Taken together, these mechanisms of cooperation at different levels and involving different partners suggest a rapdly evolving coop- erative spirit across the region, undergirded by an emerging common identity. 

Read Layers of Cooperation: The Gradual Institutionalization of Central Asian Cooperation



Published in Feature Articles

By Alex Scrivener

In over six months after disputed parliamentary elections, Georgia’s democracy is on life support. The ruling Georgian Dream party is moving towards full authoritarianism at breakneck speed, passing a battery of laws that threaten the very existence of independent civil society. Party leaders regularly threaten to go even further and institute an outright ban on much of the opposition.

Read Georgia’s Spiral towards Authoritarianism: Can it be Brought Back from the Brink?



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The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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