Thursday, March 14, 2013

CACI FORUM

"Central Asia-Caucasus Institute"

Iran and the Caucasus

Iran's expanding activities with respect to the three independent states of the Caucasus have scarcely been noticed, but warrant close attention. To what extent are these normal and simply a revival of the commercial and cultural relationships dating back centuries before the Russian Empire expanded into the region? To what extent are they, rather, the product of destabilizing ideological or geopolitical aspirations in Tehran today? And, if the latter, what are their broader implications to the region and to the world order and how should the U.S. respond?

by Naveed Ahmad (03/20/2013 issue of the CACi Analyst)

Facing depleting petro-chemical reserves and soaring demands for energy, Pakistan has tough choices to make. It can either risk punitive action by opting for a steady supply of Iranian gas or rely on the more vulnerable but U.S.-backed 1,700 kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. Political instability and a lack of a long-term vision over the past two decades have impeded the evolution of both pipeline options, as well as inland and offshore exploration. With a modest forecast of an economic growth rate of 5.5 percent, Pakistan’s energy demand in 2030 may soar to 361.31 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE), causing a deficit of 141 MTOE. Hence, Pakistan is increasingly facing an energy emergency.