VOL. 15 NO 12, 12 JUNE 2013

by John C. K. Daly (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Last month’s demonstrations outside Kyrgyzstan’s Kumtor gold mine have highlighted local and governmental dissatisfaction with the terms of its existing 2009 contract with Toronto-based Centerra Gold Inc. The Kyrgyz government has given the company until October 1 to offer revised terms, threatening to nationalize the company if it does not agree. Given the importance of the site to both Centerra Gold Inc. and the Kyrgyz government as a revenue source, a compromise would seem to be the eventual outcome. Whether or not that can be achieved will depend upon the protracted negotiations currently underway between Centerra Gold Inc. and Bishkek.

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by Valeriy Dzutsev (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Hopes for improvement of the security situation in Dagestan gradually dissipate as attacks intensify in the republic. In spite of an anti-corruption campaign introduced by Dagestan’s new acting president, harsher government tactics appear to be matched by more exasperated attacks by the militants, while new anti-insurgency jamaats are formed to avenge the casualties of terrorist attacks. As an impressive administrative reshuffle ensues in the volatile republic, few substantive reforms are promised that could improve the situation in the long run, such as granting the Dagestani public more influence in the republic’s government.

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by Naveed Ahmad (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai is a shrewd politician, even more so as his term in office nears completion and uncertainty prevails. After a spate of words with Pakistan following a border skirmish, he left for India to seek military assistance against aggressive neighboring troops. For a change, Islamabad kept its cool and welcomed China’s Prime Minister Li Keqiang, who was also flying in after a “handshake across the Himalayas” in New Delhi. As for Karzai, it was not his first flight to India for military hardware or training. However, his action is largely seen as aimed to pressure Pakistan’s newly elected leaders prior to the exit of NATO forces in 2014.

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by Rizwan Zeb (06/12/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

For the first time in the country’s history, a smooth democratic transition has taken place in Pakistan. Pakistan is facing a number of domestic, regional and international challenges which will have serious implications for the future of the country. However, whether this is the beginning of a Pakistani spring or not will mostly depend on how effectively the central government and the newly elected opposition government in Khyber Pakhtunkwa will conduct business in the days ahead.

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  • Mopping Up Gimry: "Zachistkas" Reach Dagestan
    Wednesday, 24 April 2013 09:44
    Mopping Up Gimry: "Zachistkas" Reach Dagestan

    by Emil Souleimanov (04/17/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

    In the early hours of April 11, a group of spetsnaz, Russian elite forces, came under fire in the vicinity of Gimry, a large village located in the Untsukul ditrict of Central Dagestan. During the skirmish that followed, Russian forces took fire from the village of Gimry. This along with the concerns that part of the insurgents might have been based in Gimry prompted law enforcement units to launch a massive crackdown on the village next day.

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  • Georgian Government To Probe August 2008 War
    Wednesday, 24 April 2013 09:49
    Georgian Government To Probe August 2008 War

    by Eka Janashia (04/17/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

    The Georgian Government has declared its intention to revisit the investigation of the war in August 2008. The renewed process envisages interrogations of President Mikheil Saakashvili and other high ranking government officials. The Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) labeled the government’s decision an attempt to undermine Georgia’s national interests.

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  • Pakistan's Pipeline Options: Turkmenistan Versus Iran
    Wednesday, 27 March 2013 10:59
    Pakistan's Pipeline Options: Turkmenistan Versus Iran

    by Naveed Ahmad (03/20/2013 issue of the CACi Analyst)

    Facing depleting petro-chemical reserves and soaring demands for energy, Pakistan has tough choices to make. It can either risk punitive action by opting for a steady supply of Iranian gas or rely on the more vulnerable but U.S.-backed 1,700 kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. Political instability and a lack of a long-term vision over the past two decades have impeded the evolution of both pipeline options, as well as inland and offshore exploration. With a modest forecast of an economic growth rate of 5.5 percent, Pakistan’s energy demand in 2030 may soar to 361.31 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE), causing a deficit of 141 MTOE. Hence, Pakistan is increasingly facing an energy emergency.

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  • NATO In Afghanistan - New Commander, Same Challenges
    Wednesday, 20 February 2013 13:01
    NATO In Afghanistan - New Commander, Same Challenges

    by Richard Weitz (02/20/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

    NATO’s mission in Afghanistan is reaching its home stretch. On February 10, the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) held what will likely be its last command transition, with John Allen handing over command to fellow U.S. Marine Corps General Joseph Dunford, who will now lead the international effort to train and assist the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and to help achieve NATO’s other objectives in the region. 

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Joint Center Publications

Analysis Niklas Swanström and Leah Oppenheimer, "Invisible Ink: Looking for the Lost Trade between China, Russia, and Central Asia", ISDP Policy Brief, 13 March 2013.

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New Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr with Adib Farhadi, Finish the Job: Jump-Start the Afghan Economy, December 2012.

 

Conference Report Cheryl Benard, Eli Sugarman, and Holly Rehm, Cultural Heritage vs. Mining on the New Silk Road? Finding Technical Solutions for Mes Aynak and Beyond (in cooperation with the Alliance for the Restoration of Cultural Heritage) December 2012.

Article Svante E. Cornell, "The 'Afghanization of the North Caucasus: Causes and Implications of a Changing Conflict", in Stephen Blank, ed., Russia's Homegrown Insurgency: Jihad in the North Caucasus, Carlisle, PA: U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute, 2012.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with Johns Hopkins University's Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst brings cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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