The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

Following the parliamentary elections and Bidzina Ivanishvili’s installation as Prime Minister, Georgia has undergone a series of arrests of former high government officials and members of the security establishment. While the now ruling coalition Georgian Dream (GD) promised during the election campaign that it would prosecute alleged misdeeds of the former government, the actions also carry the signs of a politically motivated campaign to weaken the former ruling party. While the case can be made that certain practices of the previous government should be investigated and prosecuted, the pattern of arrests risks damaging Georgia’s relations with international partners as well as its domestic development process.

In recent years, Moscow has considerably been reducing the share of conscripts to the Russian Army from the republics of the North Caucasus, particularly from Dagestan. Military service remains popular in Dagestan, in stark contrast to much of the Russian Federation. Yet, the changing draft policy appear to be motivated by the perceived difficulty of North Caucasians to conform with the hierarchic traditions of the Russian army, and by the dangers of providing young Dagestanis with military training in the context of the North Caucasus insurgency, which is increasingly centered on Dagestan.

Whatever their political affiliation, Georgians can join with Russia’s other neighbors in contemplating how the leadership changes in the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) might affect their security. During his years as Russia’s first civilian defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov and the Russian government made the unprecedented decision to purchase expensive Western defense equipment. The decision was designed partly to fill gaps in Russian military capabilities, and partly to use the threat of foreign competition to induce its military-industrial complex to modernize its means of production and contain its costs. Now the recent shakeup in the leadership of suggests that Russian policy makers are reconsidering their decision to import advanced foreign military equipment and experts.  

Shifts in Uzbekistan’s foreign policy over the fall, including the decision to “suspend” its membership in the Russia-sponsored CSTO and President Islam Karimov’s announcement in September that conflict over water distribution in Central Asia could lead to war, have led both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to boost their defense-related cooperation with Russia. Recent developments open for new geopolitical arrangements in the region with an increased potential for military conflicts. However, the constant flux in Central Asia’s geopolitical configurations escapes easy prediction and the region’s current tendency toward division into two opposite political and military camps is just one among many trends