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On October 27, the European Union at its General Affairs and External Relations Council Meeting in Luxembourg decided, as expected, not to renew the sanctions imposed on Uzbekistan in the aftermath of the Andijan uprising in 2005. Ultimately, the case has revealed a profound lack of strategic thinking on the side of the EU and recalls an important lesson for European diplomacy: that sanctions are an instrument for gaining compliance, and that the latter is a matter of leverage – for both sides involved.

In the fourth quarter of 2008, Tajikistan reported a sharp decline in remittances sent by labor migrants living in Russia and Kazakhstan. Many experts rushed to predict a massive return of migrants to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – all three being major migrant sending countries. But as recently released World Bank data show, while there was indeed a decline in remittances among Tajik migrants, the level of remittances increased in Kyrgyzstan. Overall, remittances fell only 6.1 percent world-wide as opposed to the earlier expected 7.3 percent. This trend demonstrates that labor migration has proved to be a stabilizing economic force in some regions, including Central Asia.

It would have been difficult to imagine the signing of protocols on the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations on October 10 without coinciding interests on the part of major stakeholders. While a testament to cooperation between the regional parties, the protocols are also a reflection of global and regional strategic competition in Eurasia among small, medium and great powers. Placing the interests of the actors in proper context is therefore necessary when assessing the transformations in Eurasia in relation to power reconfigurations, unresolved conflicts, and energy security.

The Armenian government’s draft budget for next year is reduced by over five percent compared to that of 2009. It envisages cuts in most important public expenditures (including military ones), but leaves social payments and salaries intact. A twelve percent cut in the military budget is unlikely to disrupt the military balance in the region, although Azerbaijan, Armenia’s only military adversary, will keep its military expenditures high. In addition, the 2010 budget provides enough funds for stimulating the economy, which was badly damaged in 2009.