The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

In early April, Azerbaijani authorities carried out a massive crackdown on presumed Jihadi cells in the northern areas of Azerbaijan (Qakh, Zaqatala, Sheki, and Qusar districts) along with Baku and the republic’s two largest cities after the capital city, Ganja and Sumgait. According to official sources, Ministry for National Security troops detained up to 20 members of the infamous Jihadist group “Forest Brothers.” The operation raises questions about the growing appeal of Jihadist ideology in especially Azerbaijan’s north, as well as the forceful measures applied by the authorities to tackle the problem. 

Following an attack on February 28, 2012 at a market in Yecheng, near China’s border with Tajikistan, the Chairman of the Xinjiang Regional Government said that extremists in East Turkistan and terrorists in neighboring states have one-thousand and one links. On April 6, China’s Ministry for Public Security posted on its website profiles of six Uighur terror suspects who operate in “South Asia” with the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM). The Ministry said it “hopes foreign law enforcement agencies will help arrest the six men and hand them to Chinese authorities.” China saved some face for its all-weather friend by not naming “Pakistan” directly, but China is increasingly concerned about militants in Pakistani territory.

Heated disputes over the allocation of energy and water have been the defining feature of relations between Tajikistan and Uzbekistan over much of the last decade. Although the distrust between the two countries has deep historical roots, the present tensions revolve primarily around the Rogun Dam project. So far, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have been unwilling to discuss solutions that would be acceptable to both countries. Yet, without a compromise over Rogun, it is highly unlikely that the strained relations between the two neighboring states will go back to normal. Is compromise over the dam project possible?

In an interview with Russian state television, Kazakhstan President Nursultan Nazarbayev chided the West for trying to influence other countries through mass and new media, echoing positions long held by the Kremlin. The aging Kazakh leader appeared reasonably healthy and articulate on the issues. But his comments may challenge his long-held multi-vector foreign policy, which sought to advance Kazakhstan’s national interests by balancing those of the West, Russia, and China. With Afghanistan’s future in doubt and domestic stability becoming a question for the first time, Nazarbayev is more openly tying Kazakhstan’s future to Russia.