CHINA’S RECENT CENTRAL ASIAN ENERGY MOVES
By Stephen Blank (5/20/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
China has exploited the current global economic crisis to intensify and accelerate its previous strategy for obtaining energy security and political influence abroad. Exploiting other countries’ and firms’ distress, using its enormous cash reserves, and benefitting from the fact that its economy appears to be less adversely affected than others have been, China, through its oil companies CNOOC, CNPC, Petro China, SINOPEC, or through governmental agencies, is either lending afflicted firms and countries money to obtain long-term contracts, access to energy, and other comodities at below market prices if possible, and at the current low market prices where necessary.
BACKGROUND: China’s tactics are not new.
RUSSIAN THINKING ON AMERICA’S ROLE IN AFGHANISTAN
By Dmitry Shlapentokh (5/20/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russian officials have recently sent contradictory messages in regard to American policies in Afghanistan. On the one hand, Moscow signaled that it is quite concerned with the possibility of a U.S.
SHIISM IN CENTRAL ASIA: THE RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL, AND GEOPOLITICAL FACTORS
By Sebastien Peyrouse (5/20/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The vast majority of the population of Central Asia adheres to the Hanafi school of Sunni Islam. But in addition to the Tajik Ismailis—who live in an autonomous region in the Pamirs and are followers of Aga Khan—the region also has a Twelver Shiite minority of Azeris and Ironis. They are only able to practice their faith under relatively difficult, sometimes illegal, conditions.
RELATIVITY IN WAR AND THE LEGACY OF WESTPHALIA: THE STRATEGIC OUTLOOK OF THE CAUCASUS EMIRATE
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (5/20/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Recent developments in Pakistan’s Swat valley have demonstrated how a government’s policy of non-negotiation with those they term ‘terrorists’ can quickly come asunder in the face of overlapping political, socio-economic and military challenges. Given the comparable challenges it faces in the North Caucasus region, Russia’s leadership has likely been closely monitoring the Pakistani government’s somewhat unorthodox efforts to quell the Swat insurgency. For the Sharia-based administrative entity that emerged, however briefly, in Swat closely resembles the type of state Doku Umarov and his followers would happily establish in the North Caucasus if given the chance.
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