DOES THE ESPO SIGNAL A NEW SINO-RUSSIAN RAPPROCHEMENT?
By Robert M. Cutler (3/25/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In mid-February, Russia and China signed an agreement providing for Chinese agencies to lend US$25 billion to the Russian energy trusts Transneft and Rosneft in return for the construction of a branch from the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline from Skorovodino to the Chinese border and the guaranteed supply of significant amounts of oil over the long term. In the wake of the breakdown of American efforts to build its tactical cooperation with the Central Asian states over Afghanistan and the “global war on terror” into a broader strategic vision, the ESPO accord agreement signifies a reestablishment of the ability of China and Russia to cooperate together on geo-economic questions even within the context of their competition for influence in Central Asia.
BACKGROUND: Russian plans for an East Siberian oil pipeline were long on hold due to indecision between building it to China and building it to a Far East port that could supply other consumers as well such as Japan.
FINANCIAL CRISIS STIMULATES INSURANCE SECTOR IN UZBEKISTAN
By Hushnudbek Yulchiev (3/25/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In these times of global financial crunch, analysts are striving to analyze which sectors of the economy will be prone to the adverse effects of the financial crisis. In this regard, economists in Uzbekistan are also estimating to what extent the sectors of the Uzbek economy will be negatively impacted by falling commodity prices, decreasing inflows of remittances, increasing unemployment etc., in order to ensure financial stability in the country.
THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: IMPLICATIONS FOR RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (3/25/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The current global economic crisis has forced difficult choices on governments across the world. Against a backdrop of falling oil prices on the international market, the Russian government has already overseen the gradual devaluation of the rouble and is making preparations to recapitalize several large, private and state-owned banks. But what does this difficult economic situation herald for Chechnya, one of the poorest republic’s in Russia, and how will Moscow’s policies toward this locale (and neighbouring Ingushetia) be affected by the global economic crisis?
BACKGROUND: Over the past eight years the ruling regime established in Chechnya by the Kremlin has been the recipient of truly fantastic sums of money from the federal budget.
SOUTH OSSETIA: KGB BACKYARD IN THE CAUCASUS
By Konstantin Preobrazhensky (3/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
South Ossetia has been exposed to an extensive KGB presence. Russia is, according to its friendship treaty with South Ossetia, entitled to deploy its Border Guards there. These are part of the KGB’s successor, the FSB (the Federal Security Service).
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.