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Over the past few months, the Russian FSB and other state organs have been pouring out warnings on the imminence of a military conflict and insurgency in Central Asia. These warnings proved partially correct when a border post in Uzbekistan was attacked by militants in late May and a suicide bombing struck Andijan a few days later. To prevent further incursions, Uzbekistan even began digging a 10 feet wide "anti-tank" trench at its border with the Kyrgyz Republic. The FSB's history of staging terrorist acts in Russia and elsewhere, in conjunction with the geopolitical benefits it derived from the violence in Andijan in 2005, beg the question, at worst, of whether the accuracy of Russia's forecasts is a consequence of its own involvement.

Russia has announced it will no longer apply for World Trade Organization membership as a single state. Rather, it would only consider joining the WTO if it came in as  the head of a customs union, i.e. a trade bloc and currency union comprising Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Observers first ascribed the decision to Russia’s frustrations at the slow pace of its membership talks, and as calibrated to force concessions on the part of those blocking Russia’s entry into the WTO. While this explanation probably has some validity, it is by no means the whole story. Moscow’s  statement continues to betoken an aggressive effort to lock up the CIS as a bloc subservient to Russia and deprived by Russia of key attributes of sovereignty.

Following an failed assassination attempt on June 22, Ingush President Yunas-Bek Yevkurov is current receiving treatment for serious injuries at a medical facility in Moscow. Although the attack on Yevkurov was probably the work of Islamist militants, it is an arch-enemy of the latter, Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, who stands to benefit the most from Yevkurov’s misfortune. The main strategic consequence of Yevkurov’s near-assassination may well be the bestowal of a region-wide mandate for counter-insurgency operations on the ambitious Chechen leader. 

To many, Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev’s decision on June 23 to continue his anti-terrorism cooperation with the United States was expected. According to the new agreement with the United States, Kyrgyzstan will receive US$60 million in annual rent from the U.S. government instead of the previous US$17 million. Bakiyev seems satisfied with the deal given that he will also likely win the upcoming presidential elections. It is now time for the international community to focus on development in Kyrgyzstan and improving its democratic record as part of sustaining Kyrgyzstan’s long-term commitment to anti-terrorism cooperation.