The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

In 2011, the Prime Minister of the Russian Federation initiated the creation of a Eurasian Union. This largely amounted to a restoration of the historically recurring idea of reunifying the former Soviet Republics, albeit on a new, “democratic” basis. The initiative revealed, however, a new trend – a geopolitical reversal in the post-Soviet space. By and large, this trend seems incapable of taking the upper hand over other geopolitical tendencies that have been unfolding in this part of the world since 1991 due to the lack of exactly a “democratic foundation”.

The sanctions recently introduced by the U.S. and other states against Iran over its continuing nuclear program constitute the culmination of two years of discussion in the U.S. Congress, the UN, the EU and the IAEA. However, it is unclear whether Iranian investments in Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field through the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) will be subject to the new sanctions. Their omission in the new round of sanctions through the Iran Threat Reductions Act (ITRA) makes the Shah Deniz project safe for now. 

During the past year, the Obama administration has developed its first comprehensive strategy for Central Asia. The strategy is still closely tied to Afghanistan, but the intent is to construct a more benign regional environment in which the U.S. and its NATO allies can transfer leadership responsibilities to the Kabul government and its security forces as well as the supporting regional actors. If implemented, the U.S. would remain vigorously engaged in Central Asia in order to promote its security, good governance, and socioeconomic development while these governments partner to support Afghanistan. Yet, the strategy faces several major impediments that must be overcome in 2012.