Is the North Caucasus becoming another battlefield in the global jihad?
By Tomáš Baranec (08/07/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The continuous crackdowns on North Caucasian militants conducted by Russian security forces intensified in first half of 2015, deepening the crisis caused by the split in the Caucasus emirate. Although security forces are targeting both Caucasus emirate loyalists and pro-Islamic State rebels, the former appear less resilient to such operations. Paradoxically, in comparison to the pro-ISIS group, the Caucasus emirate is better established and hierarchal and its cells are therefore more easily infiltrated by moles. The assassination of the Caucasus emirate’s emir Aliaskhab Kebedov, nom de guerre Ali Abu Muhammad, dealt a fatal blow to the virtual theocracy, facing a decreasing pool of possible recruits and increasing competition from ISIS. Despite such developments, it remains unlikely that ISIS, with its brutal methods, will prove capable of establishing itself in the North Caucasus.
Existing Paradigms for Resistance in the North Caucasus Challenged by Kadyrov, ISIS
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (06/24/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
With the recent death of its leader and the decisions by numerous field commanders in Dagestan and Chechnya to disassociate themselves with the organization, analysts are wondering if the Caucasus Emirate can endure. The terrorist group calling itself the Islamic State (ISIS) has emerged as the latest paradigm for resistance to Russian rule in the Caucasus. It is, however, only the latest in a long line of such paradigms to take root in the region, competing with the Caucasus Emirate, Chechen nationalism and other forms of ethnic separatism. What is the outlook for ISIS as a paradigm for resistance in the North Caucasus?
CACI Analyst, May 27, 2015
Contents
Analytical Articles
THE SOUTHERN ENERGY CORRIDOR: A STRATEGIC PRIORITY FOR THE U.S.?, by Mamuka Tsereteli
ELECTION YEAR IN THE EURASIAN UNION AND THE EU'S EXTERNAL ACTION POLICIES, by Gaël Chataignère
MOSCOW STEPS UP PRESSURE ON CHECHNYA'S POWERFUL RULER, by Valeriy Dzutsev
THE CHALLENGES TO GEORGIA'S ENERGY SECTOR, by Ariela Shapiro
Field Reports
INGUSHETIA'S LEADER CLAIMS THE END OF INSURGENCY IN HIS REPUBLIC, by Huseyn Aliyev
GEORGIA FAILS TO OBTAIN VISA-FREE REGIME AT EaP RIGA SUMMIT, by Eka Janashia
ARMENIA'S AND GEORGIA'S PRIME MINISTERS IRON OUT RECENT STRAINS IN BILATERAL RELATIONS, byErik Davtyan
PARTY RESTRUCTURING IN KYRGYZSTAN PRIOR TO 2015 ELECTIONS, by Arslan Sabyrbekov
CACI Analyst, April 29, 2015
Contents
Analytical Articles
RUSSIA'S REGULATION OF LABOR MIGRATION SET TO HURT CENTRAL ASIAN ECONOMIES, by Nurzhan Zhambekov
MOSCOW CFE KILL THREATEN CAUCASUS STABILITY, by Richard Weitz
CAUCASUS EMIRATE FACES FURTHER DECLINE AFTER THE DEATH OF ITS LEADER, by Emil Aslan Souleimanov
KAZAKHSTAN AND NEIGHBORS SEEK STRATEGIES TO COUNTER EMERGING THREATS, by Jacob Zenn
Field Reports
KYRGYZSTAN'S PRIME MINISTER RESIGNS, by Arslan Sabyrbekov
ISLAMIC STATE REACHES OUT TO GEORGIA, by Eka Janashia
ARMENIA'S PRESIDENT VISITS THE VATICAN, by Erik Davtyan
AZERBAIJAN DEMOTED TO EITI CANDIDATE, by Mina Muradova
CACI Analyst, April 15, 2015
Contents
Analytical Articles
CHINA AND PAKISTAN PREPARE TO ESTABLISH ECONOMIC CORRIDOR, by Ghulam Ali
DAGESTAN'S INSURGENTS SPLIT OVER LOYALTIES TO CAUCASUS EMIRATE AND IS, by Emil Souleimanov
GEORGIA'S ECONOMIC CRISIS AND POLITICAL BRINKMANSHIP, by Ariela Shapiro
THE CHINA-ARMENIA DECLARATION AND BEIJING'S PROSPECTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS, by Eduard Abrahamyan
Field Reports
GEORGIA'S FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER BLAMES GOVERNMENT FOR DAMAGING STATE INTERESTS, by Eka Janashia
ARMENIA-EU RELATIONS ENTER A NEW PHASE, by Erik Davtyan
AZERBAIJAN AND THE IRAN AGREEMENT, by Mira Muradova
KYRGYZSTAN MARKS FIFTH ANNIVERSARY OF REVOLUTION, by Arslan Sabyrbekov
Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.