By Jaba Devdariani (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: President Mikheil Saakashvili has attempted, but failed to normalize relations with Russia following his election in 2004. Frustrated at the lack of progress in political relations, as well as regarding the frozen conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Saakashvili’s administration made the issue of Russia’s Batumi and Akhalkalaki bases a test of the Kremlin’s goodwill to improve bilateral ties. In March 2005, the Georgian parliament, with nuanced support from the government, passed a resolution laying out a plan for forcefully withdrawing the Russian bases, if no progress was reached in political talks.

By Michael Fredholm (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Widespread repression of political opponents is a fact of daily life in Uzbekistan. So is the persistent problem of the country’s weak Soviet-style economy which has caused living standards to fall for substantial segments of the population. As organized secular political opposition to Uzbekistan’s president Islam Karimov is all but erased within Uzbekistan, the main remaining source of opposition to the government is based on Islam and often influenced by Islamic extremist thought.

By Pavel K. Baev (6/1/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: The chain reaction of spectacular and mostly non-violent ‘revolutions’ started in late 2003 in Georgia when the attempt of the Shevardnadze regime to manipulate elections backfired with such a force that the unpopular president had to step down. Russia had no sympathy whatsoever to Shevardnadze but the new government was certainly far worse from its point of view and the method of regime change through street power was deeply disturbing. In only a few months, the next crisis ripened when Georgia’s new president Mikhail Saakashvili challenged Aslan Abashidze, the autocratic ruler of Ajaria, and forced him out through demonstrations in Batumi backed by a show of military force.