By Richard Weitz (6/29/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Uzbekistan shares some characteristics that contributed to the collapse of the incumbent regimes in Georgia, Ukraine, and most recently Kyrgyzstan. In particular, the current Uzbek government is similarly politically repressive, economically ineffective, and plagued by corruption. The lack of effective mechanisms for peaceful political change, or even accepted methods for leadership succession, has led some of the regime’s opponents to seek to depose it by force.By Murad Batal Shishani (6/29/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: This article builds on two major works by two thinkers in the Salafi-Jihadist movement. The first is “Fursan Tahta Rayat An-Nabi” (Knights under the Prophet’s Banner), by Ayman Zawahiri, was published as a series in the London-based Arabic newspaper “Al-Sharq Al-Awsat” in December 2001. The second is “Al-Muslimoun fi Wasat Asia wa Ma’rakat Al-Islam Almukbila” (Muslims in Central Asia and Islam’s Next Battle), by Abu-Mus’ab al-Sori “the Syrian” in November 1999 and published on many Islamist free websites.By John C.K. Daly (6/29/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The sparse information percolating out of eastern Uzbekistan leaves little doubt that the encounter between Uzbek security forces and demonstrators in Andijan on May 13 led to a massive loss of life. The number of casualties is in dispute; Tashkent maintains that 173 Uzbeks were killed in the clashes while human rights and Muslim activists place the numbers far higher; one Hizb ut-Tahrir offshoot, 1924.org, claims the wildly inflated figure of 20,000 dead.By Emil Pain (6/29/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The most important element of Putin’s administrative reforms is replacing the election of governors with their appointment. Many analysts appraised this measure positively, especially in the North Caucasus where the level of administrative corruption, including elected officials, is the highest in Russia. However, the results of the reforms prove the contrary.The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.
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