Between Brussels and Moscow: Armenia’s Geopolitical Balancing Act
By Onnik James Krikorian
Under Nikol Pashinyan, Armenia has started the process of seeking to undo decades of deepening dependence on Russia. This process, however, is not an easy one. Moscow still maintains control over Armenia’s strategic industries, not least in the energy sector. It also has myriad ways of influencing Armenia, including through migrant workers and the influence of Russian media. Meanwhile, the EU and U.S. are preoccupied, including with deteriorating relations with neighboring Georgia. In the end, to escape dependence on Russia, they key for Armenia is the normalization of relations with Azerbaijan and Türkiye, a process that is nevertheless not moving fast enough. As Pashinyan’s popularity wanes, Armenia’s positions between Brussels and Moscow is precarious indeed.
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Kadyrov's Chechnya: The State Within Putin's State
Laura Linderman and Anna Harvey
April 17, 2025
Kadyrov's Chechnya presents a deepening dilemma for Russia's federal state. Putin relies on Kadyrov for stability in exchange for unprecedented autonomy—a system where "personalized loyalty substitutes for institutional coherence." This arrangement has created a parallel power structure where Kadyrov implements religious legal codes, commands his independent Kadyrovtsy militia, and pursues contradictory foreign policies.
The paradox is clear: Moscow's strategy to suppress separatism has created a regional actor whose "loyalty is conditional and whose power increasingly transcends the bounds of federation." This precedent could inspire other republics like Tatarstan and Bashkortostan to seek similar arrangements. With Russia facing pressure from sanctions and war costs, Moscow's options are limited if Kadyrov's loyalty wavers.
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Kadyrov and the Middle East: Threats to Russia's Strategy
Inal Sherip
April 3, 2025
Ramzan Kadyrov's transformation from a stalwart defender of Russia's policy of support for traditional Islam in the North Caucasus to an increasingly independent actor with divided loyalties represents a significant threat to Russia's regional security strategy. This shift, marked by his growing ties to Gulf monarchies and subtle adoption of the very religious practices he once opposed, signals a critical juncture in Russia's decades-long approach to managing Islamic influence in its southern territories.
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Uzbekistan and the Institutionalization of Greater Central Asia
S. Frederick Starr
April 3, 2025
This article is an English version of an article to appear in Uzbek in Vatan (Motherland), Uzbekistan's leading journal.
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