By Valeriy Dzutsev (05/27/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Chechnya’s ruler Ramzan Kadyrov has unexpectedly clashed with Moscow. The Russian government appears increasingly uneasy with Kadyrov’s unquestionable authority in Chechnya. At the same time, while Kadyrov will not easily yield to pressure from Moscow easily, he is evidently the weaker side in this battle. Only if Russia experiences a breakdown of power and its own strongman Vladimir Putin steps down, the Chechen leader will outlive his enemies in Moscow. Acutely aware of Russia’s projected economic downturn and its dampening effect on state capacity, Russian elites may force a regime change in Chechnya to avoid the risk of dealing with a strong regional leader at a time of decline in Moscow’s power. 

Picture 2 CACI 13 05

Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 18 March 2015 13:59

CACI Analyst, March 18, 2015

CACI Analyst, March 18, 2015 (.pdf)

 

Contents

Analytical Articles

TURKMENISTAN POISED FOR TAPI BREAKTHROUGH, by Micha'el Tanchum

NEMTSOV'S ASSASINATION AND THE CHECHEN TRACE, by Emil Souleimanov

RUSSIA TO STRIP ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA OF THEIR LIMITED SOVEREIGNTY, by Valeriy Dzutsev

ARMENIA'S RULING PARTY CONSOLIDATES POWER, by Armen Grigoryan

Field Reports

KYRGYZ CRIME BOSS MURDERED IN MINSK, by Arslan Sabyrbekov

GEORGIA FACES ECONOMIC CRISIS, by Eka Janashia

TAJIKISTAN'S ELECTIONS EXPEL OPPOSITION FROM PARLIAMENT, by Oleg Salimov

ARMENIA TO PARTICIPATE IN BAKU 2015 EUROPEAN GAMES, by Mina Muradova

Published in CACI Analyst Archive

By Emil Souleimanov (03/18/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

After the murder on February 27 of Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov, a group of Chechens allegedly led by a former kadyrovets, have become the main suspects of the ongoing investigation. Whatever the outcome of the trial, the “Chechen factor” in general and Ramzan Kadyrov’s increasing role in Russia's internal and external affairs in particular, seem to establish a pattern that could leave an imprint on Russian politics for years to come.

Picture 2 CACI 18 03

Published in Analytical Articles

By Emil Souleimanov (12/10/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On December 4, a group of Chechen insurgents in three vehicles, despite being detected in the outskirts of Chechnya’s capital city, carried out an unprecedented attack on Grozny. After hours of fighting, insurgents, isolated in the republic’s Press House building and a nearby school, situated in the city center, killed 14 and wounded three dozen local policemen. In turn, 11 insurgents were killed. The December 4 attack raised questions about the strength of the Chechen insurgency and the capability of local authorities to stem it. With a three years’ break, the insurgency has been ongoing for two decades.

9639051948 02f16f7748 z

Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 04 June 2014 12:59

Chechen Units Deployed in Eastern Ukraine

By Emil Souleimanov (06/04/2014 issue of the CACI Analyst)

News has recently spread of the involvement of Chechens in the Ukraine crisis. According to numerous eyewitnesses, members of Chechen elite units, commonly known as kadyrovtsy, were spotted in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk where they were reportedly deployed in combat against local Ukrainian troops. Soon, sources in Chechnya started informing of dozens of corpses of Chechens being transported from Ukraine back to this North Caucasian republic. The participation of the kadyrovtsy units in military operations outside the North Caucasus indicates a novel trend that could have broad security implications transcending the region’s borders.

Kadyrovtsy

Published in Analytical Articles

Visit also

silkroad

AFPC

isdp

turkeyanalyst

Staff Publications

  

2410Starr-coverSilk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024. 

Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.

Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024. 

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024. 

ChangingGeopolitics-cover2Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023. 

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023. 

Screen Shot 2023-05-08 at 10.32.15 AM

Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.



 

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

Newsletter

Sign up for upcoming events, latest news and articles from the CACI Analyst

Newsletter