TER-PETROSYAN CHALLENGES THE KARABAKH ELITE
By Blanka Hancilova and Olga Azatyan (10/31/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The re-entry of former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan into Armenian politics has the propensity to complicate the so-far smooth implementation of the presidential succession scheme laid out by the current President Robert Kocharyan and Prime Minister Serzh Sarkissian. After eight years marked by a high degree of continuity, and key contradictions were addressed quietly within the ruling elite, Armenia may be heading into a period of higher volatility and, perhaps, also higher transparency.
BACKGROUND: Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the first President of post-Soviet independent Armenia, left his post in February 1998 under pressure from his ministers led by then Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan.
CHINA’S RECENT ENERGY GAINS IN CENTRAL ASIA: WHAT DO THEY PORTEND
By Stephen Blank (10/31/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
China and Turkmenistan recently laid the ground for a 30bcm gas pipeline that will start pumping in 2009. This was the second deal consummated by China for a pipeline originating in Central Asia, the first being the deal with Kazakhstan to ship oil in the Atasu-Alashankou pipeline that began operating in 2005. A planned extension to the Caspian will give China direct access to the Caspian Sea.
THE POLITICAL CONSIDERATIONS BEHIND GRIGORI RAPOTA’S APPOINTMENT
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (10/31/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On October 6, Russian President Vladimir Putin named Grigori Rapota as his new plenipotentiary representative to Russia’s Southern Federal District (YUFO). Rapota’s appointment was a surprise. Latterly secretary of the Eurasian Economic Association, Rapota is known as a low-profile, somewhat demure official.
SECOND CASPIAN SUMMIT FAILS TO RESOLVE CONTENTIOUS ISSUES
By Richard Weitz (10/31/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On October 16, Tehran hosted the second presidential summit of Caspian Sea nations. Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev, Iran’s Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kazakhstan’s Nursulan Nazarbayev, Russia’s Vladimir Putin, and Turkmenistan’s Gurbanguli Berdymukhamedov adopted a joint declaration affirming their solidarity on important regional security issues. Yet, the presidents failed to resolve such important questions as the legal status of trans-Caspian energy pipelines and how to delineate the littoral states’ competing territorial claims.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.