WHOSE CONDITIONALITY? THE FAILURE OF EU SANCTIONS ON UZBEKISTAN
By Andrea Schmitz (11/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On October 27, the European Union at its General Affairs and External Relations Council Meeting in Luxembourg decided, as expected, not to renew the sanctions imposed on Uzbekistan in the aftermath of the Andijan uprising in 2005. Ultimately, the case has revealed a profound lack of strategic thinking on the side of the EU and recalls an important lesson for European diplomacy: that sanctions are an instrument for gaining compliance, and that the latter is a matter of leverage – for both sides involved.
BACKGROUND: In November 2005, the EU imposed sanctions on Uzbekistan in response to the Government´s reluctance to allow an independent investigation of the uprising in Andijan in May the same year, where reportedly hundreds of civilians were killed by security forces.
MIGRANTS’ REMITTANCES FARE BETTER THAN EXPECTED IN CENTRAL ASIA
By Erica Marat (11/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
In the fourth quarter of 2008, Tajikistan reported a sharp decline in remittances sent by labor migrants living in Russia and Kazakhstan. Many experts rushed to predict a massive return of migrants to Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan – all three being major migrant sending countries. But as recently released World Bank data show, while there was indeed a decline in remittances among Tajik migrants, the level of remittances increased in Kyrgyzstan.
THE ARMENIA-TURKEY PROTOCOLS: TACTICAL COOPERATION IN THE SHADOW OF EURASIAN STRATEGIC COMPETITION
By Roman Muzalevsky (11/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
It would have been difficult to imagine the signing of protocols on the normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations on October 10 without coinciding interests on the part of major stakeholders. While a testament to cooperation between the regional parties, the protocols are also a reflection of global and regional strategic competition in Eurasia among small, medium and great powers.
ARMENIA TO CUT ITS BUDGET NEXT YEAR DESPITE EXPECTED ECONOMIC RECOVERY
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (11/11/2009 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Armenian government’s draft budget for next year is reduced by over five percent compared to that of 2009. It envisages cuts in most important public expenditures (including military ones), but leaves social payments and salaries intact. A twelve percent cut in the military budget is unlikely to disrupt the military balance in the region, although Azerbaijan, Armenia’s only military adversary, will keep its military expenditures high.
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