GOVERNMENT CRISIS IN KAZAKHSTAN: WARM-UP FOR THE SUCCESSION TO NAZARBAEV?
By Robert M. Cutler (12/5/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: After Kazakhstan unwillingly obtained its independence upon the disintegration of the Soviet regime, Nazarbaev tacitly proclaimed war against the bloated state bureaucracy he inherited, which also constituted a potential opposition power base. After the first post-Soviet parliament was elected in 1994, on the basis of the country's first post-Soviet constitution, lobbies and alliances began to emerge between parliamentary groupings on the one hand, and the lower and middle ranks of the ministerial structures on the other. Nazarbaev engineered the parliament's dissolution in 1994 when, on the basis of an accusation of electoral fraud by an anti-Nazarbaev candidate in a single electoral district, the Constitutional Court ruled the entire parliament to be illegal.
ARMENIA AND CASPIAN OIL PIPELINES
By Tigran Martirosyan (8/29/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Armenia’s geographic location as a potential transit center between the energy-rich Caspian states and western markets lends it strategic importance to world energy markets, and poses unique challenges to the goal of energy security in the region. As some countries in the Caspian region expand their oil and gas production and international export of these products, Armenia appears to be well situated to take advantage of these developments. Indeed, participating in the expanding network of oil and gas export is important, as the nation seeks to strengthen its own economy and political presence in the region.
RISING TENSION AND THE THREAT OF WAR IN THE CAUCASUS
By Hooman Peimani (8/29/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The fall of the Soviet Union brought independence to the three Caucasian republics, but was also accompanied by violent conflict. Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia have all experienced severe political and military challenges shaking the very root of their states. Internal and external destabilizing forces in various forms have challenged the authority and the legitimacy of their political systems.
INDIA-PAKISTAN SUMMIT: IMPLICATIONS FOR CENTRAL ASIA
By Aftab Kazi (8/29/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Amid the ongoing economic, geopolitical and strategic transitions in Central and South Asia, the Musharaf-Vajpayee Summit - despite an unresolved ending - is a landmark in India-Pakistan relations. An almost agreed upon joint declaration had to postponed due to domestic political considerations. Despite differences over Kashmir and terrorism, understandings developed on other matters - regional trade, an Iran-Pakistan-India oil/gas pipeline, regional security, nuclear safety, and openness towards future dialogue.
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