By Stephen Blank (10/5/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: It has long been known that Iran is seeking nuclear weapons capability to go with its enhanced missile and conventional programs, particularly naval and air programs. Most analyses of Iran’s policies, both nuclear and conventional have, not surprisingly, emphasized the Gulf as the priority strategic direction but the importance of Central Asia and the Caucasus should not be overlook, as Iran certainly does not. Since the advent of American bases there, Iran has gradually perceived them to be a threat and campaigned resolutely against any further expansion of the U.

By Daniel Linotte (10/5/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: Uzbekistan officially notified its decision to withdraw from GUUAM on May 5, 2005. This move could have been anticipated a long time ago. Uzbekistan was not very involved in GUUAM activities and the growing repression in the country definitely diverged with the popular and pacific revolutions that took place in other member states, most obviously Georgia and Ukraine.

By Pulat Shozimov (10/5/2005 issue of the CACI Analyst)

BACKGROUND: After the changes in Kyrgyzstan, at least a will to create modern democratic institutions can be observed. On the other hand, officials in Uzbekistan categorically assess that only the radical Islamic or semi-criminal forces can come to power if the existing Uzbek regime would collapse. Uzbekistan’s government has its reasons and rationale for this conclusion, but the suppression of the opposition and limiting the space for the expression of the will of the people could lead to dangerous consequences.