By Najia Badykova (09/02/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

In anticipation of the lifting of sanctions on Iran and the country’s resulting potential to become a major energy player in Eurasia, Tehran, its neighbors, and European countries are evaluating their options. Iran’s eagerness to enter the European and South Asian gas markets will immediately affect the Caspian Sea Basin, already subjected to intense rivalry over pipeline routes, where most prominently Turkmenistan targets the same markets. Iran cannot in the short term supply gas in the quantities needed to diversify European supply, but seeks to secure its participation in the European market by offering its territory for Turkmen gas deliveries to Europe. Iran is much better positioned towards South Asia, where it can export its surplus gas to Pakistan and India leaving Turkmen gas less competitive in those markets. 

ir pipe

Published in Analytical Articles

By Micha’el Tanchum (08/07/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On June 24, 2015, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Romania signed a declaration committing to advance the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Romania Interconnector (AGRI) project that will transport Azerbaijani LNG across the Black Sea to Romania for re-gasification and sale in European markets. The project creates a theoretical possibility for Turkmen LNG to reach Europe through a modified use of the system. Of great geopolitical consequence, the option requires a commensurate amount of political will to implement. Independent of potential Turkmen gas exports, the furtherance of the AGRI project constitutes an important advance for Azerbaijan’s strategic policy to develop European Union stakeholders in its political sovereignty.

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Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 18 March 2015 13:59

CACI Analyst, March 18, 2015

CACI Analyst, March 18, 2015 (.pdf)

 

Contents

Analytical Articles

TURKMENISTAN POISED FOR TAPI BREAKTHROUGH, by Micha'el Tanchum

NEMTSOV'S ASSASINATION AND THE CHECHEN TRACE, by Emil Souleimanov

RUSSIA TO STRIP ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA OF THEIR LIMITED SOVEREIGNTY, by Valeriy Dzutsev

ARMENIA'S RULING PARTY CONSOLIDATES POWER, by Armen Grigoryan

Field Reports

KYRGYZ CRIME BOSS MURDERED IN MINSK, by Arslan Sabyrbekov

GEORGIA FACES ECONOMIC CRISIS, by Eka Janashia

TAJIKISTAN'S ELECTIONS EXPEL OPPOSITION FROM PARLIAMENT, by Oleg Salimov

ARMENIA TO PARTICIPATE IN BAKU 2015 EUROPEAN GAMES, by Mina Muradova

Published in CACI Analyst Archive
Wednesday, 18 March 2015 12:28

Turkmenistan Poised for TAPI Breakthrough

By Micha’el Tanchum (03/18/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)

With the drastic reduction and imminent cessation of Russian imports of natural gas from Turkmenistan, China has become Turkmenistan’s sole export market. While welcoming economic cooperation with China, Ashgabat has been working assiduously to avoid undue economic dependence on Beijing. The Turkmen government’s new determination to diversify the markets for its natural gas seems to have provided Ashgabat with the motivation to make key concessions for the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline. By creating the first significant overland link with India, the TAPI pipeline project will not only diversify Turkmenistan’s gas exports but will permanently alter the pattern of Central Asian connectivity. 

Picture 1 CACI 18 03

Published in Analytical Articles
Tuesday, 03 March 2015 13:02

CACI Analyst, March 3, 2015

CACI Analyst, March 4, 2015 (.pdf)

 

Contents

Analytical Articles

KAZAKHSTAN AND THE EEU, by Dmitry Shlapentokh

U.S. NEW SILK ROAD INITIATIVE NEEDS URGENT RENEWAL, by Richard Weitz

IS “TURKISH STREAM” A SERIOUS THREAT TO THE TRANS-CASPIAN PIPELINE?, by Juraj Beskid, Tomáš Baranec

CASA-1,000 – HIGH VOLTAGE IN CENTRAL ASIA, by Franz J. Marty

Field Reports

KYRGYZSTAN’S RESIGNED PROSECUTOR-GENERAL GIVES WORRYING PRESS CONFERENCE, by Arslan Sabyrbekov

MOSCOW PLEDGES TO COUNTERACT GEORGIA’S INTEGRATION WITH NATO, by Eka Janashia

ARMENIA TOUGHENS ITS STANCE AGAINST TURKEY, by Erik Davtyan

FOREIGN MINISTERS OF TURKEY, AZERBAIJAN AND TURKMENISTAN DISCUSS ENERGY AND TRANSPORTATION IN ASHGABAT, by Tavus Rejepova

Published in CACI Analyst Archive

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Joint Center Publications

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Modernization and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: A New Spring, November 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, ed., Uzbekistan’s New Face, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Turkish-Saudi Rivalry: Behind the Khashoggi Affair,” The American Interest, November 6, 2018.

Article Mamuka Tsereteli, “Landmark Caspian Deal Could Pave Way for Long-Stalled Energy Projects,” World Politics Review, September 2018.

Article Halil Karaveli, “The Myth of Erdoğan’s Power,” Foreign Affairs, August 2018.

Book Halil Karaveli, Why Turkey is Authoritarian, London: Pluto Press, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Erbakan, Kısakürek and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey,” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018.

Article S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, “Uzbekistan: A New Model for Reform in the Muslim World,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, May 12, 2018.

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, Religion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan, April 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, The Long Game on the Silk Road: US and EU Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?,” Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.

 

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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