CACI Analyst, July 19, 2015
CACI Analyst, July 19, 2015
Contents
Analytical Articles
WAS THE SCO SUMMIT IN UFA A BREAKTHOUGH?, by Stephen Blank
ECONOMIC CRISIS LOOMS IN THE NORTH CAUCASUS, by Natalia Konarzewska
ARMENIA AND THE IRAN DEAL, by Armen Grigoryan
Field Reports
TBILISI COURT RESTRICTS OPERATION OF GEORGIA’S LARGEST TV COMPANY, by Eka Janashia
KYRGYZSTAN DENOUNCES COOPERATION AGREEMENT WITH U.S., by Arslan Sabyrbekov
NEW PROSPECTS IN ARMENIA-GEORGIA RELATIONS, by Erik Davtyan
Economic crisis looms in the North Caucasus
By Natalia Konarzewska (19/08/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The North Caucasus is the Russian Federation’s most economically impoverished region, as well as the most dependent on government revenues. Due to Russia’s dwindling financial situation, federal subsidies for the region are shrinking, which negatively affects welfare and social service expenditures as well as investment projects. Since last year, many state-owned regional companies have gone bankrupt. Fluctuations in government revenues will pressure local governments to increase borrowing from external sources, loans that they will have a hard time paying back. The North Caucasus therefore risks seeing a series of financial defaults.
CACI Analyst, July 8, 2015
Contents
Analytical Articles
THE UZBEK-TAJIK DÉTENTE: CAN IT LAST?, by George Voloshin
AGRI’S PROGRESS ADVANCES BRUSSELS’ AND BAKU’S ENERGY AGENDAS, by Micha’el Tanchum
ISLAMIC STATE IN CENTRAL ASIA: THREAT OR OPPORTUNITY, by Charlie Smith
IS THE NORTH CAUCASUS BECOMING ANOTHER BATTLEFIELD IN THE GLOBAL JIHAD?, by Tomáš Baranec
Field Reports
TAJIKISTAN’S GOVERNMENT MISSES THE REAL PROBLEM OF LABOR MIGRANTS, by Oleg Salimov
RULING COALITION TO CUT FUNCTION OF GEORGIA’S NATIONAL BANK, by Eka Janashia
KYRGYZSTAN’S CONSTITUTIONAL CHAMBER DISMISSES JUDGE, by Arslan Sabyrbekov
BAKU CRACKS DOWN ON ALTERNATIVE MEDIA AFTER CONCLUDING EUROPEAN GAMES, by Mina Muradova
Is the North Caucasus becoming another battlefield in the global jihad?
By Tomáš Baranec (08/07/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The continuous crackdowns on North Caucasian militants conducted by Russian security forces intensified in first half of 2015, deepening the crisis caused by the split in the Caucasus emirate. Although security forces are targeting both Caucasus emirate loyalists and pro-Islamic State rebels, the former appear less resilient to such operations. Paradoxically, in comparison to the pro-ISIS group, the Caucasus emirate is better established and hierarchal and its cells are therefore more easily infiltrated by moles. The assassination of the Caucasus emirate’s emir Aliaskhab Kebedov, nom de guerre Ali Abu Muhammad, dealt a fatal blow to the virtual theocracy, facing a decreasing pool of possible recruits and increasing competition from ISIS. Despite such developments, it remains unlikely that ISIS, with its brutal methods, will prove capable of establishing itself in the North Caucasus.
Existing Paradigms for Resistance in the North Caucasus Challenged by Kadyrov, ISIS
By Kevin Daniel Leahy (06/24/2015 issue of the CACI Analyst)
With the recent death of its leader and the decisions by numerous field commanders in Dagestan and Chechnya to disassociate themselves with the organization, analysts are wondering if the Caucasus Emirate can endure. The terrorist group calling itself the Islamic State (ISIS) has emerged as the latest paradigm for resistance to Russian rule in the Caucasus. It is, however, only the latest in a long line of such paradigms to take root in the region, competing with the Caucasus Emirate, Chechen nationalism and other forms of ethnic separatism. What is the outlook for ISIS as a paradigm for resistance in the North Caucasus?
Visit also
Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, "Promise and Peril in the Caucasus," AFPC Insights, March 30, 2023.
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Putin's War In Ukraine and the Crimean War), 19fourtyfive, January 2, 2023
Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle, Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022
Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.
Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.
Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.
Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.
Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.