Wednesday, 27 July 2016 00:00

The Tashkent summit and the expanded SCO

By Farkhod Tolipov

July 27th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

50 years ago, Uzbekistan’s capital Tashkent hosted a summit ending the India-Pakistan war of 1965, resulting in the Tashkent Declaration. It was, so to speak, a Soviet “Camp David” aimed at bringing two antagonists – India and Pakistan – to peace. The SCO summit of June 2016 was, symbolically speaking, a second – multilateral – platform created in the same place, Tashkent, for the same two states to restore peace. Yet this summit did not appear to be a second Tashkent “Camp David,” but rather a challenge for the SCO itself. 

 modi-tashkent

Published in Analytical Articles

By Sudha Ramachandran

July 30th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

Afghanistan’s damming of the Harirud River could boost agriculture and industry in the country. However, the resulting reduction in water flow to Iran could contribute to a deterioration of relations with Tehran. Afghanistan and Iran can no longer delay a dialogue on how to share the waters of the Harirud. Afghanistan has previously blamed its reluctance to engage in such a dialogue on a lack of requisite data and expertise, but can ill afford a conflict with Iran on this issue. 

 in-af-dam

Published in Analytical Articles

By Aigul Kasymova

July 5th, the CACI Analyst

According to the 2015 Afghanistan Opium Survey, prepared by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) and Afghanistan’s Ministry of Counter Narcotics (MCN), opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan has decreased by 19 percent compared to 2014. Production also dropped by an estimated 48 percent from 2014 and is recorded to be the lowest since the Taliban’s 2001 opium ban. Despite this drop, Afghanistan continues to be the largest producer of illicit opium and heroin in the world. It is estimated that 80 percent of global illicit opiates derives from Afghanistan. The immediate and long-term consequences of this production continue to create challenges for the country, its people and hopes for sustainable development.

voa-opium 

Published in Field Reports

By Rafis Abazov

June 28th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

Kazakh experts have recently begun to call water the “liquid gold of the 21st century,” as all states in the Central Asian region face greater demand for water concurrent with a significant decline in water supply. The Aral Sea – which became a symbol of environmental mismanagement and environmental catastrophe at the end of the 20th century – shows that sustainable development policies can help to deal with even the most difficult water issues. Conversely, however, mismanagement and border conflicts over water might worsen the situation, leading to further political and economic tensions. The current question is whether Kazakhstan can collaborate with other Central Asian states in saving and perhaps reviving the Aral Sea.

 aralsea

Published in Analytical Articles
Tuesday, 14 June 2016 00:00

Kyrgyzstan to retain stable currency

By Tony Pizur

June 14th, 2016, The CACI Analyst

After the ruble crashed in 2014, the Kyrgyz Central Bank (KCB) prevented Kyrgyzstan’s national currency, the som, from depreciating in tandem with the Russian currency. Given Kyrgyzstan’s ascension into the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and the country’s heavy reliance on remittances from expatriates living in Russia, the KCB’s decision to maintain a relatively strong Kyrgyz currency seems counterintuitive. However, the stable som policy is predicated on long-term structural changes in trade patterns toward China. With the Chinese currency tied to the U.S. dollar, the decision to keep the som stable is based more on central bank policies in Washington and Beijing than in Moscow.

 kg som

Published in Analytical Articles

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Joint Center Publications

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Modernization and Regional Cooperation in Central Asia: A New Spring, November 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, ed., Uzbekistan’s New Face, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Turkish-Saudi Rivalry: Behind the Khashoggi Affair,” The American Interest, November 6, 2018.

Article Mamuka Tsereteli, “Landmark Caspian Deal Could Pave Way for Long-Stalled Energy Projects,” World Politics Review, September 2018.

Article Halil Karaveli, “The Myth of Erdoğan’s Power,” Foreign Affairs, August 2018.

Book Halil Karaveli, Why Turkey is Authoritarian, London: Pluto Press, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Erbakan, Kısakürek and the Mainstreaming of Extremism in Turkey,” Current Trends in Islamist Ideology, June 2018.

Article S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, “Uzbekistan: A New Model for Reform in the Muslim World,” Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, May 12, 2018.

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, Religion and the Secular State in Kazakhstan, April 2018.

Book S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, The Long Game on the Silk Road: US and EU Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus, Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 2018.

Article Svante E. Cornell, “Central Asia: Where Did Islamic Radicalization Go?,” Religion, Conflict and Stability in the Former Soviet Union, eds Katya Migacheva and Bryan Frederick, Arlington, VA: RAND Corporation, 2018.

 

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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