by Tavus Rejepova (04/03/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
High level government officials from Turkmenistan’s oil and gas sector have announced that the country plans to produce 250 billion cubic meters (bcm) and export 200 bcm of natural gas per year by 2030. Yet, while these highly ambitious production figures and several events in Europe, Asia, and Middle East to promote investment in Turkmenistan’s energy sector over the past six months demonstrate the government’s optimism, western energy companies are increasingly wary of the country’s energy export plans and the future of large-scale projects such as the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline.
by Naveed Ahmad (03/20/2013 issue of the CACi Analyst)
Facing depleting petro-chemical reserves and soaring demands for energy, Pakistan has tough choices to make. It can either risk punitive action by opting for a steady supply of Iranian gas or rely on the more vulnerable but U.S.-backed 1,700 kilometer Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan pipeline. Political instability and a lack of a long-term vision over the past two decades have impeded the evolution of both pipeline options, as well as inland and offshore exploration. With a modest forecast of an economic growth rate of 5.5 percent, Pakistan’s energy demand in 2030 may soar to 361.31 Million Tons of Oil Equivalent (MTOE), causing a deficit of 141 MTOE. Hence, Pakistan is increasingly facing an energy emergency.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.