Wednesday, 31 October 2007

UZBEKISTAN-TURKMENISTAN: LATEST SIGN OF GROWING REGIONAL COOPERATION IN CENTRAL ASIA

Published in Field Reports

By Erkin Akhmadov (10/31/2007 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On October 18, Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov paid a two-day official visit to Turkmenistan. This was the first official visit of the Uzbek president to Turkmenistan since 1998, when they met to discuss the advance of Afghanistan’s Taliban movement to the borders of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The relationships between two states have always been strained, conditioned by many disagreements from personal to interstate level.

On October 18, Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov paid a two-day official visit to Turkmenistan. This was the first official visit of the Uzbek president to Turkmenistan since 1998, when they met to discuss the advance of Afghanistan’s Taliban movement to the borders of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The relationships between two states have always been strained, conditioned by many disagreements from personal to interstate level. However, since Turkmenistan’s new President Gurbanguly Berdimuhammedov took office this year, the foreign policy of Turkmenistan is seen to be much friendlier and more open. This is a great opportunity for all Central Asian states to create closer regional ties and cooperation. As the closest neighbor, Uzbekistan has a great potential for reaching a new level in its relationship with Turkmenistan in light of being two of the biggest energy producers and transporters in the region.

The visit was definitely a success, providing for a bilateral meeting between the leaders of states, which used to have infamously tense relations. Moreover, besides producing the regular agreements on friendship and cooperation, the heads of state managed to touch upon the issues of: 1) further development of the energy sphere, 2) development of transports and communications, 3) deepening of economic trade cooperation, and 4) resolution of transboundary river issues and water management.

Cooperation between the two states in these spheres is dictated by time, geographic location, and the existence of gas and oil resources. Obviously, lately Uzbekistan embarked upon adopting a foreign policy of active integration in regional affairs for the realization of its national interests. The same is true for Turkmenistan, which has placed a priority on developing better relations with Central Asian neighbors, a fact that is not only noticed but was rewarded with an invitation as an observer to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Bishkek in August. Moreover, as one expert stated, “there has been about ten times the activity in the last four months than this country has seen in the last four years. Every day Berdimuhammedov meets with representatives from foreign oil and gas companies."

Remarkably, during the meeting great attention was accorded to the agreement concluded in May among Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Russia on a new gas pipeline and the reconstruction of existent oil and gas pipelines running from Central Asia to Russia. No less important was the discussion of the project on creating a “Turkmenistan-China” gas pipeline, which will pass the territory of Uzbekistan. This agreement was signed earlier in April of 2006 in Beijing, aiming to deliver 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year by 2009. The participation of Uzbekistan in the realization of this project will increase the transit potential of the republic, and add new export directions of Uzbek gas, thus boosting the national budget.

Therefore, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan have common economic interests. Both countries are gas producers and will export northwards to Russia and eastwards to China. It makes sense for both to work together instead of against one another in making that happen. Karimov’s official visit resulted in an interstate agreement on further strengthening friendly relations and multilateral cooperation and an interstate agreement on economic cooperation.

Official visits of Central Asian heads of state to neighboring countries are not as accidental as may appear to be the case. These visits may be a good sign of progressing regional cooperation in the region as well as the development of qualitatively new relations among the states of Central Asia based on the mutual interests of individual states. Improvement of relations between such isolated economies as Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan could manifest an opportunity for closer intraregional cooperation.

In the end of September, Tajikistan’a president Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to Kyrgyzstan, discussing the hydropower potential of the two states. Before that, Kazakh president Nursultan Nazarbaev visited Tajikistan to establish an investment fund of $100 million to provide support for the Tajik economy. He also paid two visits to Turkmenistan this year. The latest meeting between Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, who have vivid economic similarities and interests, shows how the new mechanism comes to action.

For better or worse, in light of such developments, if Kazakhstan positions itself as a bridge between Europe and Asia, Uzbekistan becomes a link among all Central Asian states. It may take full advantage of its position and continue to pose obstacles for transportation and delivery of energy resources to states across the region, thus slowing down cooperation among the states. However, it seems that Uzbekistan’s cost-benefit analysis suggests quite a different approach.
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