“The problems in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, which governments in the region believe were encouraged by the activities of foreign-funded NGOs, plus the Russian law’s example, have probably helped shaping the new Tajik law,” said a regional analyst. It is doubtful, however, whether similar unrest as in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan will haunt Tajikistan, one of the more stable countries in Central Asia, where many people are still grateful to President Emomali Rakhmonov for “ending the civil war” nearly ten years ago.

Tajikistan is heavily dependent on foreign aid, which according to some gives Western donors enough leverage over the country to have the law amended, if they would push for it. In the meantime, some international NGOs, such as the National Democratic Institute and Internews from the U.S., have already experienced difficulties with re-registration – that was required even before the new law – which they did not yet manage to complete. Other NGOs have also been checked by the interior ministry’s organized crime department.

The new law proposal does not directly ban the activities of NGOs. But some observers think that if parliament adopts the law, several organizations will find it difficult to continue operations. “Some fear that up to 80 percent of NGOs may be closed under the new law, if narrowly interpreted,” said the analyst – adding however that this seemed unlikely because Tajikistan has no wish to be compared with Uzbekistan, where most international and many national NGOs were forced to close down in the wake of the Andijon massacre in May last year.

Control over NGOs is set to become stricter, however. Under the previous law, the finance ministry and the prosecutor’s office used to have the right to check NGOs. With the new law, the justice ministry would also get the right to check them. The tax department will control the sources and extent of financing of NGOs; under the new law, they will be reviewed every quarter and not, as earlier, every year. Organizations created before the introduction of the new law will have time to re-register until March 1, 2007, according to the current draft. But although few doubt the law will come into force, it is unclear as yet when this will happen. Earlier, it was thought it might be enacted as soon as this month. But now, it seems to have been put off and might not be enacted before November’s presidential elections.

Apart from the new law on public organizations, a new law on religion is being prepared – with much larger restrictions than the current law. Some of the draft’s points are: to restrict the number of mosques; ban proselytism; ban the teaching of religion to children under seven years of age; ban foreigners from leading religious communities in the country (which would hit Tajikistan’s small Roman Catholic community, which only has foreign priests for its needs, hard); and compulsory registration for all religious communities. Furthermore, the law introduces state control over persons who teach religion within religious communities – although what requirements are needed for such teachers is unclear under the law’s current, first, draft – and over organizing Muslim pilgrimages to Mecca. The government’s religious affairs committee has been reported to defend the current draft, saying it would restrict nobody’s religious rights.

It is unlikely that the draft will become law before the end of the year, which would give time for serious re-writing. And, according to some Tajik human rights activists, this is necessary because the current draft is so vaguely-worded as to be easily misused; theoretically, it might even be used to ban the activities of the – officially recognized – Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, the activists claimed.