By Armen Grigoryan (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia continues to limit Armenia’s capability to make independent political decisions and is planning to increase its military presence in Armenia. Shortly, Azerbaijan and Georgia will face stronger pressure and Russia’s efforts to create a new union of the former Soviet republics will intensify. As Russia is unable to advance its goals through “soft power,” offering no attractive model of governance, democratic political culture, or serious economic benefits, it will increasingly rely on “hard power.” Regional policies devised by the U.S. and EU are becoming insufficient as regional dynamics change and new threats emerge.
By Haroutiun Khachatrian (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The old Armenian National Movement party has been declared alive against the wishes of its leader, Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosian, expressed another view. On October 26, the event “Founding Congress of Armenian National Movement party” took place in Yerevan. Some 200 delegates representing five provinces (marzes) of Armenia declared, despite earlier statements to the contrary, that the old ANM party (HHSh in its Armenian abbreviation) has not been dissolved, and that their party is the only heir of the previous ANM. Members of the congress are now busy creating local party bodies, party registration, and other moves envisaged by the Armenian legislation. In contrast to most of the existing Armenian parties, the new party is said to have no leader.
By Bakhtiyar Aslanov (the 30/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Since the 1994 cease-fire agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia, negotiations between the parties have been overseen by the OSCE Minsk Group without any particular success towards peaceful solution. After the deadlock in peace negotiations over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2011, Azerbaijan and Armenia both accelerated their stockpiling of arms and intensified their public rhetoric of preparing for a new war.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.