By Robert M. Cutler (3/12/2003 issue of the CACI Analyst)BACKGROUND: Iran has been seeking since the mid-1990s to undertake oil swaps with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan as a way to increase its own exports. Such swaps involve Iran’s importing oil in the north on its Caspian Sea coast for domestic refining and consumption, while exporting compensatory quantities to the world market from its southern ports on the Persian Gulf. This has been part and parcel of Iran’s strategy not only for developing its own energy sector but also for situating itself as an important transit country for international trade flows in general.
By Dr. Gregory Gleason (8/2/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: One of the most widely discussed issues of the late perestroika period was the importance of maintaining a "common economic space" on the territory of the Soviet Union. Rival versions of plans for Soviet devolution included measures to maintain commerce and other forms of interaction among the countries. In the end, the Soviet Union did not devolve, it fragmented.
By Dr. Stephen Blank (8/2/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: In early 2000, the CIA reported it could not guarantee that Iran did not have a nuclear capability. Subsequent testimony by CIA director, George Tenet emphasized that within a decade Iran would have a functioning nuclear weapon. Likewise, the CINC of USCENTCOM, General Anthony Zinni, stated that Iran would have a nuclear weapon and delivery system by 2005.
By Dr. Svante E. Cornell (8/2/2000 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The instability of the Caspian-Asian region, matters profoundly to the west and to the U.S. for several reasons.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.