By Prof. Stephen Blank (5/9/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Recent reports from German intelligence, foreign journalists, and the publicly announced preparations and exercises of Russia and the Central Asian states all display the expectation of renewed conflict triggered by the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in Central Asia. If the IMU or other forces trigger a third straight year of war, they might create an enduring basis for long-term small-scale war or worse. There is already enormous destabilizing potential in Central Asia, and prolonged warfare would only add to it.
By Tigran Martirosyan (5/9/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: The talks in Key West marked a continuation of the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents’ direct dialogue aimed at developing a common ground on general principles of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The two presidents started the dialogue in April 1999 and have met several times ever since. Their most recent encounters were in January 26 and March 4-5 in Paris and, with personal mediating efforts by President Jacques Chirac registered insignificant progress.
By Dr. Theodore Karasik (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
BACKGROUND: Kazakhstan is both blessed and cursed. Producing over half a million barrels of oil per day (bbl/d) and with well over 60 billion barrels of estimated oil reserves, landlocked Kazakhstan has the potential to be a major, regional oil producer. Unfortunately, with a current population of less than 17 million and the increasing outflow of skilled workers, the remaining Kazakhs face the ravages of infectious diseases and future generations that are stunted and weak.
By Armenia has for long been ruled by an elite whose main concern has been neither the economy of the c (5/23/2001 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Nagorno-Karabakh war is over a decade old and has hitherto defied solution. International efforts have foundered upon rivalries among the key players, locally Armenia and Azerbaijan and internationally Russia, Turkey, and the United States. The prospective importance of the huge energy supplies at stake has also complicated efforts at peacemaking.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.