By Stephen Blank (the 27/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Kazakhstan joined the Customs Union with Belarus and Russia in 2010 and by 2012, it had evolved into a single Eurasian Economic Space known also as EurAsEc. The economic union is Putin’s principal foreign policy goal and Ukraine in the West and Kazakhstan in the East are particularly important to the success of this enterprise. Yet, while Ukraine was poised to instead sign a trade agreement with the EU at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, it has stopped preparing for that signing ceremony, evidently succumbing to Russian pressure. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan has now registered increasingly vocal complaints about the direction EurAsEc is taking.
By Georgiy Voloshin (the 27/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On November 11, the presidents of Russia and Kazakhstan, Vladimir Putin and Nursultan Nazarbayev, met in the Russian city of Yekaterinburg within the framework of the Tenth Regional Cooperation Forum. This bilateral structure aims to develop closer economic and trade relations between Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s border regions, especially in the context of growing integration ties between the two countries. While the general state of Russian-Kazakhstani partnership was the major topic of official discussions, this gathering enabled the signing of a new bilateral treaty known as the Treaty for good-neighborliness and alliance in the 21 century.
By Armen Grigoryan (the 13/11/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia continues to limit Armenia’s capability to make independent political decisions and is planning to increase its military presence in Armenia. Shortly, Azerbaijan and Georgia will face stronger pressure and Russia’s efforts to create a new union of the former Soviet republics will intensify. As Russia is unable to advance its goals through “soft power,” offering no attractive model of governance, democratic political culture, or serious economic benefits, it will increasingly rely on “hard power.” Regional policies devised by the U.S. and EU are becoming insufficient as regional dynamics change and new threats emerge.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.