BACKGROUND: Having been elected president of Georgia in January 2004 election, President Mikheil Saakashvili has a rare opportunity to implement democratic values and embark on proposals for the sustainable development of the country. One of his greatest challenges is to insure the country’s stability and society’s expectation after the revolution of November 2003. The election campaign was based on the promises of Georgia’s territorial restoration and fighting against deep-rooted corruption. Corruption, instability, low living standards and a large shadow economy confront the country. The revolution brought attention to the country and the region in its entirety, while the two major conflicts in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, with additional problems in the autonomous republic of Ajaria and in the Pankisi Gorge jeopardize the stability of Georgia. The Autonomous Republic of Ajaria, a strategic region in Southwestern Georgia, has become a black spot for the future development of Georgia and one of the greatest and most immediate hurdles for the new government . Violations of human rights, impediments on freedom of speech, and the presence of a Russian military base there creates dissatisfaction between the regional and central governments, with the former using all necessary means in order to maintain their pre-eminent position in Ajaria. Aslan Abashidze, the regional power-holder whose authoritarian policy strive to minimize dependence on the central government, largely ignores the allegations of President Saakashvili. Having traveled to Moscow many times without the mandate of the central government, Abashidze has clearly secured support from the Russian political establishment. The Russian military bases openly back his widespread influence in the region. Having governed Ajaria for over ten years, Aslan Abashidze presides over a government marred by corruption and engaging in widespread violation of human rights. While all this is well known, his the nature of his links to Russia – especially links to Russian organized crime – are less widely publicized. Abashidze appears to have close relations to Grigory Loutchansky, who identifies himself as a “big Russian businessman and president of the Nordex group of companies”. Loutchansky contributed significant financial support for Abashidze’s national election campaign already in the 1995 parliamentary election. It seems that Mr. Loutchansky sought to use the Batumi seaport for his private purposes. As an award, he promised Mr. Abashidze submarine turbines for the electric supply for the region. Later, however, the deal was changed and expensive fertilizers were imported through the “Nordex” company and distributed for the harvest in Georgia’s eastern Kakheti region. Mr. Abashidze’s aim in the deal was to gain the popular support in the upcoming parliamentary elections:. The “fertilizers for votes” campaign won Abashidze’s political party, the “Union of Democratic Revival”, many seats in the parliament. Corruption based on clandestine connections, creates an economical vacuum in the region as in the country as a whole. Money transfers from the region to the central budget has so far depended on the whims of Aslan Abashidze and not on the laws of the country. One of the Abashidze’s assets is the perfectly friendly relation he enjoys with Yuri Lushkov, Mayor of Moscow, who is considered to be the man behind a huge resort project along the Black Sea shore in Batumi. Indeed, Luzhkov could be considered one of the mediators between Abashidze and the Russian political elite.

IMPLICATIONS: Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin’s promises to Mikheil Saakashvili to help the settlement of the conflicts on the basis of territorial integrity, recent events in Ajaria raise doubts about Moscow’s non-intervention policy in Georgia’s internal affairs. Local experts tend to consider that the policy of Aslan Abashidze deteriorates relations between the central and regional government. Since the revolution of roses, a cold war has begun between Tbilisi and Batumi. Abashidze’s statement to defend the territorial integrity of the region by all necessary means shows that Batumi and Tbilisi are still far apart. Saakashvili’s recently ordered Abashidze to investigate human rights violations and put an end to pressures on mass media. The only visible result was the brutal beating of Vakho Komakhidze, a reporter with investigative news program 60 Minutes broadcast on private television channel Rustavi 2, by an Ajarian special task force on March 4. Logically, Abashidze’s policies have no approval from the central government. Mr. Saakashvili sharply criticized the existence of a ministry of internal affairs of Ajara as a violation of Georgia’s Constitution, and ordered its abolishment. However, Abashidze ignored the demand. Tbilisi insists on the investigation of the assassination of the deputy of the ministry of interior affairs of the autonomous republic, who was killed in January 2004 under mysterious circumstances. Abashidze does not have an interest to investigate the case – since the victim was a supporter of the central government. Saakashvili and Abashidze also have serious disagreements over the constitution of the autonomous republic that confers extensive powers on Abashidze, which Saakashvili is seeking to limit. Abashidze’s position may in fact be stronger than normally assessed, given the fact that his links to Russia are much more widespread and deep-rooted than is apparent from his political relations with Moscow or the presence of a Russian military base. Abashidze has clandestine connections with Russian political, but also economic circles, including deep links to Russian organized crime. As such Aslan Abashidze’s capacity to effectively manipulate between Tbilisi and Moscow with apparent ease is considerable. The present situation in Ajara gives Abashidze the opportunity to maintain the current authoritarian regime. The legal and illegal business activity of Abashidze’s family gives him and his adherents the opportunity to threaten the stability of the country and oppose the liberal development of Georgia and the entire the region. The external economical and political interests of various groups in the region further worsen existing tensions.

CONCLUSIONS: Few observers believe this state of affairs will bring about stability for the country. In fact, the rivalry could have catastrophic consequences for the new government of Georgia if it pushes the issue too hard and it backfires. It seems, however, that Mikheil Saakashvili does not consider the dangers that could arise if he and Abashidze do not find an arrangement allowing both parties to work together. The coming parliamentary elections in the country could lead to a thawing of relations between Ajaria and the center. Both parties expect to take seats in the new parliament. Most likely, the status quo will be sustained following the elections: destructive and non-cooperative relations. Despite the strong allegations of both sides, there is little that suggests that the situation will be changed in the near future, certainly not in a peaceful manner.

AUTHOR’S BIO: Giorgi Vashakidze is MA candidate at Uppsala University the Department of Peace and Conflict Research.