“CACI Analyst, October 2, 2013”
Russia's Principled Caucasus Policy
Stephen Blank (the 02/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Five years after its war with Georgia, Russia is now moving to institutionalize its gains into enduring territorial-political structures. During September 2013, Moscow effectively blackmailed Armenia into joining the Eurasian Union and has now announced that it is going to sign a treaty with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, recognizing the “international borders” between them and Russia. As a result, Russian soldiers are now erecting fences effectively demarcating these territories from Georgia, if not formally annexing them to Russia. Both of these moves undermine the sovereignty, and in Georgia’s case the integrity, of these two South Caucasian states and demonstrate that Russia’s neo-imperial effort to create a closed bloc in the CIS is intensifying and accelerating.
Armenia Places Its First Eurobonds
Haroutiun Khachatrian (the 02/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
The Armenian government has recently faced much criticism making the case that it has lost its ability to take decisions independently. This is a reaction to the September 3 statement of Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan, who said his country was seeking to join the Russia-led Customs Union, thus destroying the results of four years of negotiations with the EU over an Association Agreement, which would have been finalized at the Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius in November. Sargsyan’s move was widely interpreted as a result of Russian pressure on a small and weak country that needs support in many areas.
“CACI Analyst, September 18, 2013”
Armenia Chooses Customs Union over EU Association Agreement
By Armen Grigoryan (the 18/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
After nearly four years of negotiating the Association Agreement with the EU, Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan made an abrupt turn, announcing his intention to instead join the Customs Union with Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. It is not possible to combine the two frameworks because of contradicting tariff regulations. Sargsyan’s statement was made after increased political and economic pressure from Russia in recent months. Armenia’s participation in Russia-led integration projects will imply very limited possibilities for cooperation with the EU. It will also result in Armenia’s deeper isolation and cause additional complications for the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict resolution process.
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Staff Publications
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Greater Central Asia as A Component of U.S. Global Strategy, October 2024.
Analysis Laura Linderman, "Rising Stakes in Tbilisi as Elections Approach," Civil Georgia, September 7, 2024.
Analysis Mamuka Tsereteli, "U.S. Black Sea Strategy: The Georgian Connection", CEPA, February 9, 2024.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, ed., Türkiye's Return to Central Asia and the Caucasus, July 2024.
Book Svante E. Cornell, ed., "The Changing Geopolitics of Central Asia and the Caucasus" AFPC Press/Armin LEar, 2023.
Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell and S. Frederick Starr, Stepping up to the “Agency Challenge”: Central Asian Diplomacy in a Time of Troubles, July 2023.
Silk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, U.S. Policy in Central Asia through Central Asian Eyes, May 2023.