by Gulshan Sachdeva (07/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Despite many positive developments in the last few years, the future of the ambitious TAPI gas pipeline project is still in doubt. All four partner countries are making serious preparations for the project. However, the uncertainty surrounding post-2014 Afghanistan has dampened the motivation among major energy companies to act as lead consortium partners of the project. In these circumstances, multilateral agencies like the Asian Development Bank may have to play a crucial role in salvaging the project. Likewise, if the U.S. administration is serious about its support for TAPI, it should put its full diplomatic and financial weight behind it.
by Mina Muradova (06/26/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
Russia and Azerbaijan have recently terminated two strategic agreements. In May, the Russian government terminated a 1996 deal to transport oil from Azerbaijan through its pipeline system. The agreement on transporting Azerbaijani oil via the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline envisaged the transit of at least five million metric tons of oil a year, with a tariff of about US$ 15.70 per metric ton.
AZERBAIJAN BREAKS THROUGH INTO EASTERN EUROPE
Stephen Blank (02/06/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)
On December 7, 2012 Russia began construction of its South Stream gas pipeline. Earlier in 2012 the European consortium behind the Nabucco pipeline formally submitted a revised scenario called Nabucco West to Azerbaijan and Azerbaijan and Turkey announced plans to build the Transanatolian pipeline or TANAP from the Shah Deniz gas field to Turkey’s border with Bulgaria. Nabucco West would then take gas all the way into Central Europe. Hence, Azerbaijan is now emerging as a potential major gas supplier to Eastern European states, whose governments are now eagerly courting Azerbaijan. This also means that Azerbaijan is emerging as Russia’s rival in this market.
The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.