By Michael Hikari Cecire (the 16/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Though one of the quieter subplots in Black Sea geopolitics, the emergence of an increasingly cohesive trilateral grouping between Turkey, Georgia, and Azerbaijan is reconfiguring the regional balance of power. This entente was officiated in the 2012 tripartite Trabzon Declaration, but is rooted in growing economic and strategic interdependencies. While the grouping remains vulnerable to both pressure from Moscow and internal challenges, this trilateral entente has the potential to be the prevailing player in the South Caucasus if it maintains its upwards trajectory, and its interests largely overlap with those of the West.

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Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 16 October 2013 00:00

App-Gate and Azerbaijan's Presidential Election

By Bakhtiyar Aslanov (the 16/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On October 8, a scandal erupted over the new IOS and Android application that Azerbaijan’s Central Election Commission (CEC) planned to launch for voters to follow the presidential election vote count on their mobile phones on Election Day, October 9.

Published in Field Reports
Wednesday, 02 October 2013 00:00

Russia's Principled Caucasus Policy

Stephen Blank (the 02/10/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Five years after its war with Georgia, Russia is now moving to institutionalize its gains into enduring territorial-political structures. During September 2013, Moscow effectively blackmailed Armenia into joining the Eurasian Union and has now announced that it is going to sign a treaty with South Ossetia and Abkhazia, recognizing the “international borders” between them and Russia. As a result, Russian soldiers are now erecting fences effectively demarcating these territories from Georgia, if not formally annexing them to Russia. Both of these moves undermine the sovereignty, and in Georgia’s case the integrity, of these two South Caucasian states and demonstrate that Russia’s neo-imperial effort to create a closed bloc in the CIS is intensifying and accelerating.

south caucasus

Published in Analytical Articles
Wednesday, 18 September 2013 00:00

Azerbaijan Gears up for Presidential Elections

By Mina Muradova (the 18/09/2013 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On October 9, ten candidates for president will struggle for the votes of almost five million Azerbaijani voters. Observers have expressed doubts over the transparency and fairness of the upcoming elections and increasing pressure on journalists has induced youth and political activists to organize protest actions against the government in recent months. 

Published in Field Reports

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Staff Publications

Oped S. Frederick Starr, Russia Needs Its Own Charles de Gaulle,  Foreign Policy, July 21, 2022.

2206-StarrSilk Road Paper S. Frederick Starr, Rethinking Greater Central Asia: American and Western Stakes in the Region and How to Advance Them, June 2022 

Oped Svante E. Cornell & Albert Barro, With referendum, Kazakh President pushes for reforms, Euractiv, June 3, 2022.

Oped Svante E. Cornell Russia's Southern Neighbors Take a Stand, The Hill, May 6, 2022.

Silk Road Paper Johan Engvall, Between Bandits and Bureaucrats: 30 Years of Parliamentary Development in Kyrgyzstan, January 2022.  

Oped Svante E. Cornell, No, The War in Ukraine is not about NATO, The Hill, March 9, 2022.

Analysis Svante E. Cornell, Kazakhstan’s Crisis Calls for a Central Asia Policy Reboot, The National Interest, January 34, 2022.

StronguniquecoverBook S. Frederick Starr and Svante E. Cornell, Strong and Unique: Three Decades of U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership, Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, December 2021.  

Silk Road Paper Svante E. Cornell, S. Frederick Starr & Albert Barro, Political and Economic Reforms in Kazakhstan Under President Tokayev, November 2021.

The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst is a biweekly publication of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute & Silk Road Studies Program, a Joint Transatlantic Research and Policy Center affiliated with the American Foreign Policy Council, Washington DC., and the Institute for Security and Development Policy, Stockholm. For 15 years, the Analyst has brought cutting edge analysis of the region geared toward a practitioner audience.

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