CONCLUSIONS: Putin would not be able to launch such a large scale campaign against Berezovski, Gusinski, Viakherev and Chernomyrdin without the support of other oligarchs whose support he obtained early in his career, and who accepted his rule and evidently agreed to subdue and serve his interests (like Abramovich and Chubais). At the same time, Putin does not intend to remain dependent on the support of “loyal” oligarchs forever. He is bringing more and more of his own people into power. His calculations are that this "new generation" will not be as powerful as the old one and most importantly will recognize his superiority. The new chairman of Gazprom, Miller, is from Saint Petersburg, and is one of the President's men. It is hard to predict whether more oligarchs will be done away with, or whether others will get the message, like Abramovich and Chubais did, and put themselves under the Putin's service. What is clear is that Russia is flexing its muscles vis-à-vis other CIS states, who have to deal with the new reality.
The centralization of power in Russia that is currently taking place may increase the risk of a loss of de-facto independence of some CIS countries, or the opposite: a consolidation of democratic and pro-western forces in these states and effective resistance to mounting pressure from Moscow. If there is a will for such resistance in CIS states, they still enjoy the necessary backing for it - strong support from the US and some western European countries, and the main reason for this strong support is the Caspian energy projects.
AUTHOR BIO: Kakha Khizanishvili is a MALD candidate at Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy,Tufts University. He has worked in the Office of Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze. Currently he is an intern at Center for strategic and International Studies in Washington DC.
Copyright 2001 The Analyst All rights reserved