On May 12, parliamentary elections were held in Armenia with a relatively high voter turnout of ca 59.4 percent, according to the Central Election Commission of the Republic of Armenia. Upon the conclusion of the vote count on May 13, it was evident that the Republican Party of Armenia, chaired by Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian (who took over the position after the death of his predecessor Adranik Markarian in March) had won a landslide victory. According to figures presented by the Central Election Commission, RPA gained 32.9 percent of the vote. The RPA’s victory was expected, and the governing party’s grip over the parliament is further reinforced through the pro-government parties coming in second and third.

The RPA’s main competitor, the Prosperous Armenia Party, formed in 2004 and headed by oligarch Gagik Tsarukian, made an unexpectedly poor performance and ended up with only 14.7 percent, in spite of pre-election polls forecasting a close race between RPA and PAP. The low result for PAP may have implications for the division of power between Sarkisian and President Robert Kocharyan after the presidential elections to be held in 2008. Sarkisian will in all likelihood replace Kocharyan as president and the results serve to consolidate Sarkisian’s position. Kocharyan is expected to seek to retain a powerful position in Armenian politics after his last term as president, possibly in the form of Prime Minister. The PAP has been termed a potential counter-balance to the RPA and a likely powerbase for Kocharyan in this endeavor. These suggestions are reinforced by previous statements of PAP leader Tsarukian that he does not seek a political post. Another pro-government party, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaksutiun), came in third at 12.8 percent. The RPA and its support parties combined thus enjoy support from over 60 percent of the voters.

The opposition’s failure to form a coalition – an approach proven successful in the 2003 elections – provided for weak results. Only two opposition parties will take seats in the Parliament. Of these, Orinats Yerkir (Country of Law Party), headed by former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasarian, got an unexpectedly low 6.8 percent, possibly an effect of Kocharyan’s allegations of treason following the secret taping of Baghdasarian’s conversation with a British diplomat in which he sought condemnation of the election results. The Heritage Party, headed by U.S.-born Raffi Hovanisian performed stronger than expected at 5.8 percent, in spite of what locals term a low profile during the run-up. 

Accordingly, the People’s Party of Armenia, headed by Stepan Demirchian, Kocharyan’s primary rival in the 2003 presidential elections, is now seriously weakened and does not take seats in parliament. Likewise, none of the more radical opposition parties, notable among which are Aram Sarkisian’s Hanrapetutiun (Republic Party) which advocates a complete shift of power in Armenia, reached the threshold of 5 percent.

According to the independent ArmeniaNow, several cases of election fraud were reported during Election Day, including voter intimidation and ballot falsification, while the Central Election Commission denied that any violations had taken place. In a statement on May 13, the International Election Observation Mission to Armenia reported that the elections “demonstrated improvement from previous ones and were largely in accordance with international commitments, although some issues remain unaddressed”. It refrained from using the words “free and fair”. ArmeniaNow Journalist Marianna Grigoryan states that violations were more organized during these elections and that significant vote buying took place. This was mainly done in locations outside the vicinity of polling stations and election observers. While incidents were reported by local observers, the complete magnitude and impact of these violations can therefore not be estimated.

A Yerevan-based journalist preferring to remain anonymous, stated that widespread expectations that the elections were going to be neither free, nor fair contributed to a large proportion of the electorate refraining from voting since the results were seen as given beforehand. In this view, the outcome serves to reinforce widespread perceptions that change cannot be achieved through elections in Armenia.

The opposition has voiced complaints of election fraud. On May 13, a rally was held on Liberty Square in Yerevan, where the Republic Party, Impeachment bloc and New Times Party, along with the more moderate People’s Party of Armenia, gathered and termed the results unacceptable. The rally however failed to attract a large crowd, as only some 2,300 people attended. New rallies are scheduled for May 18, but locals consulted doubt that these will be more successful. It is said that the opposition was discouraged both by the relatively positive remarks by international observers and through an awareness of a lack of public support for protests.