The Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst

Anti-government protests on August 5, 2010 in the capital of Kyrgyzstan ended with the riot police dispersing crowds of demonstrators and arresting the organizer, Urmat Baryktabasov, on charges of coup attempt and illegal possession of weapons. Baryktabasov gained notoriety as a result of his alleged first attempt at seizure of power in June 2005, weeks following the Tulip Revolution. Even though the police and security services successfully coped with the challenge this time, the situation in Kyrgyzstan is far from stable.

During the crisis in Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, the European Union published a Joint Progress Report by the Council and the European Commission to the European Council on the implementation of the EU Strategy for Central Asia. This took place three years after the launching of the first strategy, initiated by the German presidency in 2007. Beyond its partly self-congratulatory and sometimes technocratic discourse lauding the progress that has been made in many areas, the balance sheet is mixed.

The websites of the North Caucasus insurgency reported the resignation of the Caucasus Emirate leader, emir Dokku Umarov on August 1, where Umarov in a short video announced his decision to step down and that he would be replaced by emir Aslambek Vadalov. The following day, Umarov in another video, disowned his previous statement and stated it was impossible for him to resign. These two contradictory statements within only a few days raise questions regarding the causes of Umarov’s canceled resignation and the future of the insurgency. 

Bulgaria and Romania have over the course of the summer been setting down their markers as regards the Nabucco and South Stream pipeline projects in an on-again, off-again manner. What they finally decide may determine which pipelines from the South Caucasus and Turkey get built where in Southeast Europe. Major investment decisions are also on the line in coming months. It is consequently little exaggeration to say that the next year, if not the next half-year, will set the main lines of the blueprint for Caspian/Black Sea hydrocarbon development for the better part of the oncoming decade.