CENTRAL ASIA - CAUCASUS ANALYST

CENTRAL ASIA - CAUCASUS ANALYST Wednesday/April 04, 2007

RUSSIA AND CHINA UNITE FORCES IN PEACE MISSION 2007
Erica Marat
This summer the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) will conduct joint military exercises called "Peace Mission-2007". The Russian-led Collective Security Treaty (CSTO) will closely observe the drills. For the first time, the two organizations will act as partners rather than representing overlapping multilateral structures seeking to fight terrorism, extremism, and separatism in Eurasia. However, the drills also generate discussions whether both organizations are in fact pursuing transnational security or are more concerned with international dominance. The CSTO's suggestion to practice defense mechanisms against nuclear terrorism suggests the latter.

CHECHNYA'S NEW PRESIDENT: RATIONAL ACTOR OR IDEOLOGICAL ZEALOT?
Kevin Daniel Leahy
Chechnya's new pro-Moscow president cannot be accused of resting on his laurels. Since his elevation to the republic’s top political post last month, Ramzan Kadyrov has scarcely paused to take stock of his meteoric political rise, briefing the media on a whole host of sensitive political topics, spearheading various socio-political initiatives, while reorganizing the presidential structures swiftly and decisively. Many Russian analysts believe that Kadyrov's appointment undermines the very concept of Russian statehood, with some accusing him of harboring latent separatist inclinations. Whether Kadyrov harbors such inclinations is irrelevant, however; whether or not he will act on them is the more pertinent question.

THE BURGAS-ALEXANDROUPOLIS PIPELINE AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
Stephen Blank
The Black Sea has emerged as a primary area for the transport of energy to Europe and thence to the world market. Yet Turkey has insisted, partly for ecological and environmental reasons, on restricting the flow of energy through the Bosporus. This ruling has forced every energy producer in Russia and Central Asia to search for alternatives such as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, various schemes to transport oil across the Black Sea, and more recently the new Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline which will take oil from Kazakhstan through Russian pipelines and tankers to the Bulgarian port of Burgas and from there through Bulgaria and Greece to the port of Alexandroupolis. But beyond ecological and environmental restrictions on energy transport through the Black Sea Straits, these ventures each have considerable economic and political significance.

NUCLEAR SMUGGLING CASE DEEPENS GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN TENSIONS
Richard Weitz
Revelations in January 2007 about the details of a recent smuggling incident in the Republic of Georgia have intensified concerns about the security of nuclear materials in the South Caucasus. Although the initial effect of the case has been to sharpen tensions between Russia and Georgia, over the long-term it could result in enhanced nonproliferation cooperation in the region. Indeed, the only two seizures of Highly Enriched Uranium in recent years have taken place in Georgia, indicating the need for greater involvement by the international community in countering WMD smuggling in the South Caucasus.