Field Reports

Many in Georgia are concerned over the new wave of public discontent and violent crackdown on protesters in Kyrgyzstan last week. Shortly after the bloody events in Kyrgyzstan, Zurab Noghadeli, former Georgian prime minister and leader of the pro-Russian Movement for Fair Georgia, proclaimed that the “Bishkek scenario” would take place in Tbilisi if the government dares to falsify the results of the Tbilisi municipal elections scheduled for May 30.

Bloody clashes between opposition protesters and law enforcement bodies took place in Bishkek on April 7, 2010.  Mass riots of thousands of people led to the resignation of the Prime Minister, the dissolution of parliament and the establishment of a new interim government. While the opposition is slowly consolidating its power, the ousted President Bakiyev refuses to resign.

On March 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan presented a note of protest to the Ambassador of Uzbekistan in Dushanbe due to interruptions of railway cargos headed for Tajikistan across the Uzbek border. Tajikistan’s Prime Minister Akil Akilov then complained to the international community about the situation on the Tajik-Uzbek border during his visit to the UN headquarters in New-York, stating that “Tashkent impedes the transit of goods to Tajikistan intentionally”. Finally, the president of Tajikistan appealed to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon during the latter’s official visit to Tajikistan, requesting help to resolve the conflict between the two countries.

In the last days of March, activists of the Ecological Movement of Uzbekistan held several demonstrations against the “Tajik Aluminum Company” (TALCO). The activists appealed to international organizations to take measures and stop the environmental pollution in their area caused by the aluminum plant. Many analysts consider the demonstrations as a part of the Uzbek authorities’ reaction to Tajikistan’s plans to finish the construction of the Rogun hydropower station. In this light, experts in Tajikistan think that the issues between two states should be resolved by political-diplomatic means rather than taking to the streets.               

On 13 March the Georgian television audience was – unknowingly – subjected to what can be described as a large-scale socio-psychological experiment. In a special edition of its prime-time news bulletin, one of Georgia’s bigger TV channels, Imedi, broadcasted a mock report of a Russian invasion of the country. An announcement before the show explained that a fictive ‘special report’ would follow, illustrating a worst-case scenario of how the situation in the country could develop, if Georgian society does not unite against Russia. However, no caption was displayed during the 30-minute program, entailing that viewers who missed the announcement saw what they believed was a report of real events.

The latest meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in Sochi on January 25 was marked by some progress in agreeing on the Basic principles for the settlement of the Nagorno–Karabakh conflict, giving rise to certain expectations of further rapprochement. In particular, it was reported that during the meeting in Sochi, which was organized by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan reached an agreement on the preamble of the Basic principles of a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh. It was also reported that shortly before the Sochi meeting, an amended version of the Madrid principles of the Karabakh settlement were presented by the mediators (the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group, the U.S., Russia and France) to the two presidents. If agreed upon, the Madrid principles were to serve as the basis for completing the Basic principles of the settlement. In turn, the Basic principles are expected to be the foundation of a future Peace agreement.

The U.S. State Department’s 2009 Human Rights Report expresses concern over cases of human rights violations and the state of media freedom in Georgia, while it also notes positive steps taken by the government towards continued democratic development in the country.

As the one-year agreement on the U.S. airbase at Manas is at the point of renewal, recent visits of high-ranking U.S. officials to Kyrgyzstan are largely viewed as intended to ensure a prolongation of the deal. At the same time, the growing military cooperation between the U.S. and Kyrgyzstan may complicate Bishkek’s relations with Moscow.

The February 28 election to Tajikistan’s lower house of parliament predictably ended in a landslide victory for the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDPT), headed by President Emomali Rakhmon. With 43 elected party members and 12 nominally independent candidates that had been fielded and supported by the party, the PDPT has extended its control of the 63-seat parliament for another five years. The remaining eight seats went to the Agrarian Party (APT), Communist Party (CPT), Islamic Revival Party (IRPT) and the Party of Economic Reforms (PERT) which will be represented in the parliament with two seats each. Another three parties – the Democratic Party (DPT), Social-Democratic Party (SDPT) and Socialist Party (SPT) – failed to pass the electoral threshold.

As the peace talks on Nagorno-Karabakh continue, the interest and involvement of regional players increases. In recent months, Iran appears to seek to increase its role in Caucasus along with its competitors, Turkey and Russia. This also seems connected with the reduced activities of the U.S. in the region.