Field Reports

On March 10, the World Bank regional director for Central Asia, Motu Konishi, announced in Dushanbe that the bank has found the funding for carrying out a feasibility study and environmental assessment of the controversial Rogun hydropower station project on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan. Konishi’s statement came almost one year after the bank agreed to finance the study with a particular focus on the potential regional implications of the Rogun dam. It will take 18 months to complete the impact study and, if the project proves financially and environmentally sustainable, Konishi said the World Bank will “assist the Tajik government to create an international consortium to build it.” In the meantime, the Tajik government will continue building the dam with the bank monitoring the works.

On April 22, Armenian president Serzh Sargsyan issued a decree whereby the ratification procedure of the Armenia-Turkey protocols on normalization of relations between the two countries is “suspended”. Accordingly, on April 26, the bill on ratification of these protocols was withdrawn from the agenda of the National Assembly. In a televised message on April 22, Sargsyan declared that this decision was made due to the policy of Turkey “to protract time” aimed  at undermining the process of ratifying the protocols “in a reasonable time and without preconditions”, as previously agreed. In an interview with Armenian Public TV on April 26, Armenian foreign minister Edward Nalbandian commented this move as a refusal of Armenia “to continue the process for the sake of process only”.

Mass disorder in the Maevka village near Bishkek led to lootings and the death of several people. Attempts by unknown land squatters to illegally seize land that belonged to the ethnic Turks of Maevka resulted in tensions between the titular nation and members of the ethnic minority. A number of attacks on the property and rights of the minority are seen as increasing the risk of violent inter-ethnic conflict, especially in light of the weak Kyrgyz government. However, some claim this possibility is exaggerated and, in some cases, artificially stirred up.

On April 19, 2010, President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan arrived to Moscow for a two-day visit. Several observers related the visit to the recent events in Kyrgyzstan, as if Uzbekistan was seeking support of Russia in an unstable situation in the region. However, the visit was planned back in December, but postponed due to the cooling of relations between the two states. The visit had several positive outcomes and shed light on the parties’ positions on certain issues; even though some observers argue that no important problems were resolved.

Many in Georgia are concerned over the new wave of public discontent and violent crackdown on protesters in Kyrgyzstan last week. Shortly after the bloody events in Kyrgyzstan, Zurab Noghadeli, former Georgian prime minister and leader of the pro-Russian Movement for Fair Georgia, proclaimed that the “Bishkek scenario” would take place in Tbilisi if the government dares to falsify the results of the Tbilisi municipal elections scheduled for May 30.

Bloody clashes between opposition protesters and law enforcement bodies took place in Bishkek on April 7, 2010.  Mass riots of thousands of people led to the resignation of the Prime Minister, the dissolution of parliament and the establishment of a new interim government. While the opposition is slowly consolidating its power, the ousted President Bakiyev refuses to resign.

On March 22, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan presented a note of protest to the Ambassador of Uzbekistan in Dushanbe due to interruptions of railway cargos headed for Tajikistan across the Uzbek border. Tajikistan’s Prime Minister Akil Akilov then complained to the international community about the situation on the Tajik-Uzbek border during his visit to the UN headquarters in New-York, stating that “Tashkent impedes the transit of goods to Tajikistan intentionally”. Finally, the president of Tajikistan appealed to the UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon during the latter’s official visit to Tajikistan, requesting help to resolve the conflict between the two countries.

In the last days of March, activists of the Ecological Movement of Uzbekistan held several demonstrations against the “Tajik Aluminum Company” (TALCO). The activists appealed to international organizations to take measures and stop the environmental pollution in their area caused by the aluminum plant. Many analysts consider the demonstrations as a part of the Uzbek authorities’ reaction to Tajikistan’s plans to finish the construction of the Rogun hydropower station. In this light, experts in Tajikistan think that the issues between two states should be resolved by political-diplomatic means rather than taking to the streets.               

On 13 March the Georgian television audience was – unknowingly – subjected to what can be described as a large-scale socio-psychological experiment. In a special edition of its prime-time news bulletin, one of Georgia’s bigger TV channels, Imedi, broadcasted a mock report of a Russian invasion of the country. An announcement before the show explained that a fictive ‘special report’ would follow, illustrating a worst-case scenario of how the situation in the country could develop, if Georgian society does not unite against Russia. However, no caption was displayed during the 30-minute program, entailing that viewers who missed the announcement saw what they believed was a report of real events.

The latest meeting between the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents in Sochi on January 25 was marked by some progress in agreeing on the Basic principles for the settlement of the Nagorno–Karabakh conflict, giving rise to certain expectations of further rapprochement. In particular, it was reported that during the meeting in Sochi, which was organized by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, presidents Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan reached an agreement on the preamble of the Basic principles of a settlement on Nagorno-Karabakh. It was also reported that shortly before the Sochi meeting, an amended version of the Madrid principles of the Karabakh settlement were presented by the mediators (the three co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk group, the U.S., Russia and France) to the two presidents. If agreed upon, the Madrid principles were to serve as the basis for completing the Basic principles of the settlement. In turn, the Basic principles are expected to be the foundation of a future Peace agreement.