Field Reports

On July 16-17 2010, the former capital of Kazakhstan, Almaty, hosted the OSCE Informal Ministerial Meeting to discuss the situation in Kyrgyzstan, reiterate Kazakhstan's commitment to the OSCE's fundamental principles and values and, more importantly, push for the summit at the end of this year, the first in the past 11 years.

Kyrgyzstan faced further unrest, which was seen by many as a clumsy attempt to overthrow the country’s shaky government. Despite the fact that mass disorder was successfully averted, the risk of new attempts at violent upheaval in view of the upcoming parliamentary elections remains high.

Hopes for real progress in the peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have deteriorated over the last month, as both sides have been acting according to the principle of “a tooth for a tooth”.

Through June 2010, the levels of violence in Russia’s North Caucasus mirror the amount of attacks that occurred in the region during 2009. Despite policy changes by the Kremlin, such as the official end of the counter-terrorism operation in Chechnya and the establishment of the North Caucasus Federal District, attacks against state security organs continue unabated. In fact, members of the Islamic militancy have displayed signs of becoming bolder, not only in their attacks against the state, but also in their attempts to control civilian activities and enforce their own moral standards. According to data compiled by the Georgetown University Emerging Threats Project, there have been approximately 30 “religiously motivated” attacks in the North Caucasus Federal District from the beginning of 2010 to the end of June. The majority of the attacks have taken place in Dagestan and it seems that the assaults are on the rise. There were two assaults in April, five attacks in May, and the number jumped to nineteen such “religiously motivated” violent incidents in June.

Speaking to journalists in Dushanbe on July 12, 2010, the visiting head of the Iranian president’s office, Esfandiyar Rahim-Masha’i, accused Uzbekistan of causing a six-month delay in the launch of the first unit of the Sangtuda-2 hydroelectric power station (HEPS) – Iran’s US$ 180 million investment project in southern Tajikistan – by holding up Tajikistan-bound freight cars with construction materials. Uzbekistan has been delaying the transit of hundreds of Tajik trains since February 2010, attributing the interruptions to “technical and logistical” issues. However, many observers believe that Uzbekistan’s blockade of Tajik cargo transit through its railway network is an attempt to force Dushanbe to abandon the controversial Rogun HEPS project, which Tashkent has long been opposing. Out of 1,500 to 2,000 Tajik cars held up by Uzbekistan, roughly one-third are bound for Khatlon where the Rogun dam is being constructed.

Recent developments in Central Asia seem to have affected relations between the U.S. and Uzbekistan positively. These relations have not been characterized as cooperative during the past several years. However, either due to the unstable security situation in the region following the bloody clashes in southern Kyrgyzstan or the increasing role of Uzbekistan in providing logistical assistance for U.S. operations in Afghanistan, an increased U.S. presence in Uzbekistan now seems viable.

The U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, presented the U.S. administration’s view of the ongoing tensions between Russia and Georgia on her one-day visit to Tbilisi on July 5, as the final stop of her trip to Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. Clinton underlined the importance of democratic reform and non-resurgence of armed conflict in Georgia’s breakaway regions.

Armenia will speed up its joint projects with Iran in an effort to secure its supplies and extend its export markets. In the coming months, Armenia and Iran will launch three major joint construction projects in the energy sector. The Armenian Minister of Energy and Natural resources Armen Movsisyan said on July 14 that a joint hydropower station on the border river of Araks (near the Armenian city of Meghri), a high-voltage power line connecting the two countries, and a pipeline for exporting oil from Iran to Armenia will be constructed. All the three projects were subject to discussion long ago, but their implementation was delayed for different reasons, including the political instability in Iran since 2009.

On June 11, Bulgaria announced its defection from Russia's Burgas-Alexandroupolis project planned to carry Russian and Caspian oil from a Bulgarian Black Sea port to a Greek port in the Aegean Sea, bypassing the Turkish Straits. Considered by Russian experts as an outcome of European and American pressure, the Bulgarian initiative was actually the first immediate effect of the Azerbaijani-Turkish gas agreement signed on June 7, which opened the door for accomplishing the EU-backed energy projects Nabucco, ITGI and TAP. The second effect of this agreement was the conclusion on June 17 of a memorandum of understanding between three Italian, Greek and Turkish gas companies for the ITGI gas pipeline, which according to its signatories “will enhance European energy security”. 

Sukhumi temporary withdraws from the five-party Geneva talks due to disagreements over key security issues, the head of the Abkhaz presidential administration Nadir Bitiyev declared on June 23rd. Tbilisi appraised this move as an attempt on Moscow’s part to undermine the Geneva talks through its proxy regime in Sukhumi.