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TAJIK ARMY ELIMINATES ARMED GANG

By Suhrob Majidov (01/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The special military operation that commenced in eastern Tajikistan on September 22 after an armed attack on a military convoy, which killed 28 servicemen, continued in early January. On January 4, representatives of Tajikistan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs reported that eight members of Alovuddin Davlatov’s armed gang, including the leader himself, were killed. The special operation was considered a success, but at the same time raised questions about the way the bodies of the eliminated militants are treated.

AZERBAIJAN BOOSTS DEFENCE PRODUCTION

By Mina Muradova (01/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

Azerbaijan has ambitious plans as a producer of defense and security equipment. While this will bring new income to the state budget, it also implies risks related to the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh involving Azerbaijan and neighboring Armenia.

KAZAKHSTAN PREPARES TO EXTEND NAZARBAYEV’S MANDATE UNTIL 2020

By Georgiy Voloshin (01/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

A few weeks after the OSCE Summit in Astana had reiterated the commitment of Kazakhstan and other member states to democracy and the rule of law, a group of Kazakh citizens put forward an audacious proposal to extend President Nazarbayev’s current mandate until December 6, 2020 without holding presidential elections in 2012. The popular assembly organized in the city of Ust-Kamenogorsk in eastern Kazakhstan consisted of 850 representatives from 14 regions as well as the cities of Astana and Almaty who unanimously voted for the commencement of an endorsement campaign. According to Kazakhstan’s constitution, a referendum may be organized upon the condition that at least 200,000 signatures are collected and submitted to the Central Election Commission for verification and approval.

POVERTY RISING IN ARMENIA AFTER ECONOMIC CRISIS

By Haroutiun Khachatrian (01/19/2011 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The National Statistical Service of Armenia released the report “Armenia: Social Snapshot and Poverty”, which summarizes the data of a survey conducted on almost 8,000 households countrywide in 2009. All urban and rural communities were included in the sample. The report also contains data and information available from the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs, the Ministry of Health Care, and the Ministry of Education and Science. It presents the poverty levels in Armenia in 2008 and 2009, and contains an updated methodology for determining the poverty level (a new assessment of the consumer basket value, different from the one applied earlier for the years 2004-2008).

COALITION GOVERNMENT FORMED IN KYRGYZSTAN

By Joldosh Osmonov (12/22/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The formation of a parliamentary majority coalition and establishment of a new government ended political uncertainty since the October 2010 parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan. However, due to the deteriorating economic situation, including a huge state budget deficit and rising public discontent in the country, the fate of the newly-elected government seems predetermined.

RUSSIA DECLARES READINESS TO PROTECT THE TAJIK-AFGHAN BORDER

By Suhrob Majidov (12/22/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

During the international conference “Tajikistan and Russia-2010” in Dushanbe on December 9, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs representative Maksim Peshkov stated to journalists that Russian border guards are ready to return to protect the Tajik-Afghan border. The statement drew attention from both Tajik and Russian authorities and experts, as it seems that Tajikistan would rather receive Russian support in a different form.

END OF 2010 SEES INCREASED INTEGRATION IN CIS AND CSTO

By Georgiy Voloshin (12/22/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

On December 10, 2010, the Russian capital hosted two high-level gatherings at the same time – the summits of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The participating heads of state discussed the current state of economic integration as well as the future of their military cooperation aimed at strengthening collective defense capabilities after the June 2010 tumult in Kyrgyzstan.

UZBEKISTAN ATTENDS OSCE SUMMIT AND WELCOMES CLINTON

By Erkin Akhmadov (12/22/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

The 56 members of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe attended the OSCE summit that was held in Astana, Kazakhstan on December 1-2. While almost all the states were represented by their presidents, Uzbekistan’s president did not attend the summit and sent the Minister of Foreign Affairs Vladimir Norov instead. In addition, on December 2, U.S. State Secretary Hillary Clinton visited Tashkent as a part of her Central Asian tour, during which she also attended the OSCE summit in Astana. During both events, Uzbek representatives had an opportunity to voice the country’s positions and opinions on some of the most important issues.

BLAST IN BISHKEK RAISES KYRGYZ SECURITY CONCERNS

By Joldosh Osmonov (12/08/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)
A recent bomb blast in central Bishkek and a skirmish in the city of Osh alarmed the public and again raised security challenges to the top of the agenda in Kyrgyzstan. The authorities relate these incidents to the increased activity of terrorist organizations in the country and claim to have the situation under control. However, controversial statements of the law enforcement bodies regarding the responsible for the recent incidents cause concern among the public. On November 30, an early-morning blast shook Bishkek. A homemade explosive device was installed near the city’s largest sports complex, which is used as the main venue for the trial against former President Bakiev and his allies, charged with the mass murder of protestors during April 7 events. A court hearing, which was scheduled for the same morning the blast occurred, was cancelled. As a result of the explosion, which allegedly was aimed at causing panic among the public, three people were injured, including two policemen. The explosion was hastily termed a terrorist act by the Kyrgyz authorities and connected with the recent series of police raids and arrests of an alleged group of conspirators who were ostensibly planning terrorist attacks across the country. Right after the blast, the deputy head of the Kyrgyz National Security Service (KNSS) Kolbay Musaev, organized a press conference stating that a group of 39 people were planning to organize more than 30 terrorist acts in the cities of Bishkek and Osh. Other terrorist acts were planned to take place in the southern part of Kyrgyzstan, aimed to destabilize the situation in the region and the country in general. According to Musaev, this group is closely affiliated with the Islamic Jihad Union and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), both international terrorist organizations. The “list of 39” includes those who were killed and arrested as a result of the special operations conducted during the previous two months, he concluded. It is notable that one day prior to the Bishkek incident, Kyrgyz security services and police jointly conducted a special operation in central Osh in the south of the country. The residents of the targeted house opened fire, leaving four security officers injured. The exchange of fire lasted for a few hours and spread panic among the Osh residents, whose memories of bloody ethnic clashes in June are still fresh. At the end of the operation, four armed people were killed including Farhat Nurmatov, an imam of the local mosque, who allegedly led the group. Two other suspects were arrested. The raid discovered a number of automatic weapons, grenades and explosives. A week before the incident, Minister of Interior Zarylbek Rysaliev, announced that nine people suspected of planning terrorist acts had been arrested, while the security services claimed that two leaders of terrorist groups were detained in early October.

Interestingly, there are two official versions regarding the affiliations of the group behind the blast and other possible terrorist acts. Whereas the KNSS leadership retains the position that the group is related to international terrorist organizations like the IMU, the Interior Minister and Marat Imankulov, Secretary of the Security Council, claim that the group is strictly local and has a “nationalist-separatist nature”. “These people are nationalist-separatists and their main aim is to discredit the democratic reforms by destabilizing the situation in the country”, the Security Council Secretary stated.

TAJIKISTAN LIMITS ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION

By Suhrob Majidov (12/08/2010 issue of the CACI Analyst)

November 1 marked the beginning of electricity consumption limitations in Tajikistan. The authorities announced that from now on, the residents of the country’s cities and villages will receive no more than twelve hours of electricity in their homes. Even though limitations on energy consumption have become common practice in Tajikistan during the winter season, this year the shutdowns started earlier than usual and many residents report unequal electricity distribution. In addition, the joint stock energy holding company stated that it plans to increase tariffs on electricity in the upcoming year.

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