Field Reports

From April 1, 2011, Russia has increased export dues for oil products for countries outside the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The export due has increased by up to US$ 283 for one ton of refined oil and up to US$ 198 for one ton of dark-oil products. The new export tariffs heavily affect Tajikistan, which imports up to 92 percent of its domestic oil consumption from Russia. The increase of oil export dues has already resulted in a sharp increase of prices for gasoline and essential food products in Tajikistan.

The upcoming parliamentary elections in Turkey should clarify whether Turkish-Armenian relations may improve in a short-term perspective, opening for a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and regional cooperation in the South Caucasus. Regardless of the outcome of the elections, it will clarify the fate of the Turkish-Armenian protocols signed in October 2009. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP party seems capable of securing a majority in the newly elected parliament and to form a new government. After the elections, the AKP will not be under the threat of instantly losing the support of voters due to opposition criticism, so its leadership may consider the ratification of the protocols safer.

Russian Security Forces have reported that Israpil Validzhanov, who is also known as Emir Khasan, was killed on the night of April 18. Validzhanov was appointed head of Dagestan’s Shariat Jamaat after his predecessor Magomedali Vagabov was killed in August 2010.

The three Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia held a meeting in Moscow on April 22 to discuss several issues related to the resolution of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. An issue of special concern is the increased tension along the frontline due to intensifying cease-fire violations over recent months.

On April 15-16, 2011, India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh paid his first official visit to Kazakhstan, after attending a meeting of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) on the Chinese island of Hainan. A series of bilateral agreements signed in the wake of his meeting with President Nazarbayev testify to India’s firm commitment to strengthening and expanding its presence in the most developed country of Central Asia. Previously, a lack of adequate air communication, the remoteness of both capitals and scarcity of financial inflows from India impeded relevant cooperation to the advantage of other regional players, primarily Russia and China.

On April 5, 2011, the Central Election Committee of Kazakhstan made public the official results of the latest presidential elections, in which the incumbent President Nursultan Nazarbayev won a landslide victory. Nazarbayev obtained 95.5 percent of the public vote, convincingly outbidding his three competitors. Senator Gani Kassymov, leader of the Kazakhstan Patriots’ Party, is credited with 1.9 percent of the ballots, while Zhambyl Akhmetbekov of the Communist Party, and Mels Yeleusizov who represents the independent environmentalist organization “Tabigat”, managed to secure only 1.4 percent and 1.2 percent of the total number of voting bulletins, respectively. Almost 90 percent of the Kazakhstani public are said to have presented themselves at polling stations on April 3.

As the Kyrgyz president dismissed the acting Prosecutor General, the latter decided to raise allegations of corruption against the country’s leadership, which in turn led to broad public debate. Many consider his dismissal as part of a “removal of political undesirables” in light of a serious political struggle related to the upcoming presidential elections. However, political analysts claim that it is unclear who will benefit the most from the dismissal.

The Tajik government prepares to introduce a constitutional reform process which, according to analysts, will alter the country’s political system, possibly paving the way for President Rahmon’s son to succeed him as the country’s leader in 2020.

On March 28, The Russian Federal and Ingush enforcement units launched an air and ground attack on an insurgent camp in Ingushetia’s Sunzha district, officially killing 17 people. It was part of a large scale counterinsurgency operation in the region and has been qualified by President Medvedev as a “heavy blow” to the insurgents.

On March 7-10, 2011, Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon paid an official visit to Pakistan where he met with his Pakistani counterpart Asif Ali Zardari. Official media report that the parties discussed “strengthening and further development of friendly relations and bilateral cooperation” during the visit. In addition, the President of Tajikistan held separate meetings with relevant ministers and discussed cooperation between the two countries in the fields of trade and economy, agriculture, public health, etc. As a result of the visit, over 30 agreements were signed, including a joint communiqué by the two Presidents, an interstate agreement on cooperation in the field of sport, and a number of inter-agency agreements in the fields of agriculture and public health.