Field Reports

A new major gas discovery in the Caspian Sea by the French oil company Total SA strengthens Azerbaijan’s position in gas negotiations with Europe and Russia. This improves the prospects for the EU-backed Nabucco pipeline to transport Caspian gas to Europe and reduce European dependence on Russian energy supplies. The company revealed on September 9 that is has encountered “more than 500 feet of cumulated net gas pays” at the Absheron X-2 well. “The well’s first results confirm a potential of several trillion cubic feet of gas and associated condensates,” a statement on Friday read. The discovery was made in what Total termed “high quality sands” on the northern part of the structure which is spread out over 270 square kilometers. “Reservoirs are expected to extend over the entire northern part of the structure,” the company stated. The discovery was made at a depth of 6550 meters but drilling is set to continue to explore for possible deeper objectives.

In the first days of September, Tajikistan hosted the CIS Summit, a meeting of the “Dushanbe four”, and received consecutive official visits by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Both leaders perceive Tajikistan as a “strategic partner” in the Central Asian region. However, relations between Tajikistan and the two regional powers have developed quite differently. Relations between Tajikistan and Iran have seen positive developments in all fields including political, economic and cultural cooperation. By contrast, a number of unresolved and problematic issues exist in Tajikistan’s bilateral cooperation with Russia, which is aggravated by the polemic from both sides.

The fifth round of the World Trade Organization (WTO) talks between Georgia and Russia, mediated by Switzerland, did not yield any substantial changes. Negotiators met in Geneva on September 12 for the latest round of WTO talks. The discussion sought to close the positions of the two countries on establishing custom checks and international monitoring mechanisms in the Georgian breakaway regions to increase the transparency of trade in these territories. Tbilisi considers Russian compliance on such measures to be a key precondition for Russian WTO membership, whereas Moscow views the proposal as contradictory to its interests.

A record number of people have applied for registration to run for the presidential post in Kyrgyzstan. As the end of the registration period approaches, the number of qualified candidates is decreasing, with most applicants being unable to fulfill the registration requirements. Despite the authorities’ promises to ensure free and fair elections, it is evident that the main contenders started campaigning before the authorized period.

On August 16, the World Bank in Tajikistan distributed a statement related to the construction of the Rogun hydropower station. In this statement, the World Bank recommends Tajikistan not to start constructing the dam required for the station. The international consultants, who are conducting a feasibility study for the Rogun project on behalf of the World Bank, advised Tajikistan’s government to halt the start of the dam construction, which is planned for this year. Instead, the experts propose to conduct a more comprehensive analysis of the planned dam.

In Yerevan, a series of meetings are being held between the two delegations of the ruling coalition and the opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) created by Armenia’s first President Levon Ter-Petrosian. In the political jargon of Armenia the series of meetings, which are a unique phenomenon in the political history of Armenia, are simply called Dialogue. While negotiations between government and opposition to manage crises are overall unusual in former Soviet countries, the current dialogue features special peculiarities in the political context of Armenia.

Baku has raised a formal protest with France and Germany over events related to the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory, but de facto controlled by Armenian troops. Four members of the French National Assembly headed by Guy Teissier, Chairman of the French Assembly's defense and armed forces committee, arrived in the breakaway region on August 22 and met with Bako Sahakian, the president of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
Speaking in the de facto parliament of Nagorno-Karabakh, Teissier, who is a member of France's ruling Union for a Popular Movement (UMP), described the trip as a gesture of “solidarity.” The recent visit of French deputies shows that France pursues a policy based on double standards though this country together with Russia and the U.S. are mediating to find a solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, said Malahat Ibrahimqizi, a member of the Azerbaijani Parliament from the ruling New Azerbaijan Party. “If they had good intentions in Karabakh, they would have requested permission from relevant authorities in Azerbaijan. Otherwise, I condemn their visit,” she stated.
The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry has sent two letters of protest to the French Foreign Ministry and the National Assembly over the visit of four deputies to the breakaway region. Elman Abdullayev, spokesman of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry, said that the four deputies had been blacklisted and declared persona non grata in Azerbaijan. “They had to inform Azerbaijani authorities in advance about the visit. Otherwise, it is considered as disrespect for the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity, which is a violation of the law. It is illegal visit to Azerbaijan’s territory because Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognized part of Azerbaijan,” Abdullayev said. Abdullayev had trouble confirming how many persons had been put on the so-called black list so far, but noted that journalists and businessmen were represented apart from deputies and state figures. “All of them will be refused visas to Azerbaijan,” he stated. “The Government of Azerbaijan has the right to take measures against people who violate its territorial integrity. They have to know that the de facto authorities of Nagorno-Karabakh are illegitimate.”

On August 25, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev welcomed an official South Korean delegation to Astana, headed by the President of the Republic of Korea, Lee Myun-bak. This was their fifth meeting in three years, and a result of a number of bilateral contacts at the level of officials and businesspeople. When speaking to the press at the end of talks behind closed doors, the presidents announced the effective signing of 12 agreements that are intended to strengthen cooperation between the two countries in the light of an already existing strategic partnership concluded in May 2009.

Moscow’s efforts to undermine the North Caucasian insurgency by investing in the region continue to encounter difficulties. On July 25, the Ministry for Regional Development proposed a new federal program aimed at promoting socio-economic development in Russia’s North Caucasus Federal District. The program is scheduled to run from 2012 through 2025 and would require a significant increase in Moscow’s spending on the region. The total cost of the project amounts to more than US$ 140 billion. Almost US$ 90 billion of the funding would be taken from the federal budget. An additional US$ 7 billion would come from the heavily subsidized budgets of the local republics and around US$ 38 billion would be provided by extra-budgetary funds. Soon after the program was proposed, officials from the Finance Ministry and the Ministry for Economic Development expressed concerns about their ability to afford these new budgetary allocations. Moreover, on August 3, Deputy Finance Minister Tatiana Nesterenko announced that the Finance Ministry would not approve the new development program.

In early July 2011, the Speaker of Russia’s State Duma, Boris Gryzlov, made a statement to the Russian media concerning unresolved issues in military cooperation between Russia and Tajikistan. Gryzlov criticized Tajikistan’s alleged inability to protect its own border with Afghanistan and to stop drug trafficking from Afghanistan to Russia. The statement provoked vigorous discussions between experts and politicians from both sides.