Field Reports

Competition between the West and Russia for the transport of Caspian gas to the European market is increasing. As the time approaches for Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan to decide to whom their natural gas will be sold and which routes will be used to bring gas to Europe, the struggle for gas reserves intensifies.

On June 27, Georgia’s ruling National Movement party and several opposition parties signed an agreement on electoral system reform. The deal determining provisions for amendments to the Electoral Code was hailed by the authorities but rejected by six opposition parties claiming that it offers only “façade changes” and does not address fundamental electoral shortfalls. Three local election watchdog groups also criticized the deal and expressed concerns over inbuilt legal controversies. 

On June 28, Kazakhstan took over the chairmanship of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) from Tajikistan at a meeting of OIC foreign ministers in Astana. This 57-member state organization assembled representatives from 11 observer countries, the UN, the OSCE, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization as well as high-level delegations from the U.S., the United Kingdom, Australia, China and others. One of the first steps taken by the new chairman was to propose renaming the Organization, which has become the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

The failure of the Armenian-Azerbaijani summit in Kazan on June 24 to reach a compromise on the principles of settlement in Nagorno-Karabakh showed that the influence of great powers in the South Caucasus region is weakening. The three countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group, Russia, the U.S. and France, have previously acted as neutral brokers assisting the parties to the conflict in finding a peaceful solution. While their interests in the South Caucasus differ, they have shared a concern to inhibit a destabilization of the region which could lead to resumed hostilities.

On June 13, Astana hosted the 25th high-level meeting of Kazakh and Chinese leaders since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev and his Chinese colleague Hu Jintao signed a declaration on strategic partnership, which provides for increased cooperation in a dozen areas, such as technological and scientific exchange, water management and culture. In his statement to the press, Hu referred to the joint plan of boosting bilateral trade expected to double by 2015, thus reaching the benchmark of US$ 40 billion. Kazakhstan’s leader also promised to start supplying China with nuclear tablets this year in order to better satisfy the ever-growing energy demand of Chinese industries.

On June 1, World Bank director of strategy and operations in Europe and Central Asia Theodore Ahlers announced that the Tajik government temporarily put a halt to a program for resettling tens of thousands of villagers from the projected reservoir area of the giant Rogun Dam. According to Ahlers, the resettlement was suspended until the results of two ongoing World Bank commissioned studies, which look at the dam’s economic feasibility and its potential social and environmental impact, become available. These studies, expected to be completed in late 2012, will help the Tajik authorities to develop a proper resettlement framework based on the needs of the affected populations.

The latest round of Geneva talks held on June 7 in Switzerland signaled Tbilisi’s hesitation to participate in the multilateral format. Whereas previous rounds at least conveyed a “shared desire” to continue the talks, this discussion ultimately focused on reciprocal exchanges of blame between Moscow and Tbilisi and displayed the problematic dynamics of the negotiation format.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited Uzbekistan on June 14, 2011. Medvedev was invited by Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov to discuss some issues of regional and international politics as well as economic issues. Even though the visit lasted only four hours, both leaders stated it was quite fruitful. Since the negotiations took place behind closed doors, observers voiced several ideas about the possible issues on the meeting’s agenda.

The dispersal of a protest rally turned violent at Tbilisi’s Rustaveli Avenue on Georgia’s Independence Day. Riot police broke up an anti-government demonstration, led by former Parliamentary Speaker Nino Burjandze on May 26. Two people died and dozens were injured during the turmoil. Although the dispersal has troubling consequences, it may mark the beginning of a new phase in the country’s political life.

On May 29, the village of Terekli-Mekteb in the Nogaysky District of Dagestan hosted a congress dedicated to the problems of the Nogai people living in Russia. The delegates of the congress demanded that a decree, issued by the Supreme Soviet in 1957, should be declared unconstitutional since it divided the traditional territory of the Nogai people between Dagestan, Chechnya, the Astrakhan Oblast, and the Stavropol Krai. The congress also proposed the creation of a committee to discuss the establishment of a new administrative-territorial unit in the Nogai people’s historical homeland.