Field Reports

The Mayor of Osh City has expressed the intention to create his own municipal police, including a special task force. While some consider the initiative an attempt to strengthen his position in a long-lasting confrontation with the central government, others contend that it is a game of politics in light of the upcoming local elections.  

In the first days of November, residents of several cities and villages in Uzbekistan started experiencing serious gas shortages. Meanwhile, representatives of the local authorities have not provided any comprehensive explanations to the anxious population, other than warning that the winter will be cold and advising to store alternative fuels to keep their houses warm and businesses running. Experts state that Uzbekistan’s large natural gas export is one of the main reasons for the increasing domestic gas supply crisis, as this provides significant income to the state budget but does not consider the needs of the local population. In any case, many experts predict social unrest if the situation does not change during the cold winter months.

Two Tajik journalists who were recently convicted in separate trials on charges related to their professional activities have appealed their verdicts. On October 14, reporters Urunboy Usmonov and Mahmadyusuf Ismoilov were handed guilty verdicts by Tajik courts in the northern town of Khujand, but were freed following the verdicts. Despite their release, the two journalists have refused to accept the verdicts and vowed to push for full exoneration in higher courts.

For the first time in its history, Azerbaijan has become a member of the UN Security Council (UNSC) after winning the final vacancy on the 15-member body. Analysts speculate on how Baku will use this opportunity to settle the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh which remains unsolved after over 20 years. Azerbaijan claimed the non-permanent seat, awarded to an Eastern European country, on the 17th round of balloting after it scored 155 votes from UN member states in the General Assembly – well above the required two-third majority of states present and voting. The country’s victory occurred after Slovenia withdrew its bid at the end of the 16th round. In that round Azerbaijan had obtained 116 votes to Slovenia’s 77. A representative of Slovenia told the General Assembly that while his country believed it would be a good fit for the Council, it was withdrawing its candidacy as the will of the Assembly was clear.

Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev was the last of the three presidents of the Customs Union member states – Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus – to react to Vladimir Putin’s recent article, published in one of Russia’s most read newspapers, about the prospects of creating a full-blown economic entity modeled after the European Union.

The return of Armenia’s second President Robert Kocharyan to national politics is unlikely to affect the parliamentary elections in May 2012, since Kocharyan is officially a non-partisan and does not enjoy the support of any political party. However, the question of Kocharyan’s potential return to politics has attracted significant attention in the Armenian press in the context of pre-election developments in Russia. When the decision that Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will most likely replace Dmitry Medvedev as Russian President was announced on September 24, many Armenian media outlets argued that a similar arrangement is possible in Armenia, due to the country’s close ties with Russia. The argument is largely based on the view that Putin would prefer Kocharyan as Armenian president over the incumbent Serzh Sargsyan, who will run for his second term in 2013.

On October 13, Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed into law a new bill regulating the activities of religious organizations, both domestic and international. This law, whose adoption by the Parliament’s lower and upper chambers took only a few weeks, has quickly become a source of serious controversy, with its detractors constantly referring to the discriminatory effect of its several clauses, in a country with a multitude of religious confessions.

In written statements released on October 7 and 12, Georgian tycoon and philanthropist Bidzina Ivanishvili publicly expressed his intention to win the 2012 parliamentary elections by an absolute majority. Although the Civil Registry Agency launched procedures for revoking the Georgian citizenship of the billionaire-turned-politician, depriving him the right to establish and finance a political party, Ivanishvili’s announced ambitions triggered vast speculation on a probable redesign of Georgia’s political landscape.

The approach adopted by the Turkish government – setting resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a precondition for normalizing its relations with Armenia – has not produced the expected result. Quite the contrary, such an approach induced Armenia’s government to adopt a more confrontational stance, which has been emphasized by President Serzh Sargsyan’s statements at various forums, including the UN General Assembly, about recognition of Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence as the only feasible solution, as well as by the big military parade in Yerevan on 21 September – Armenia’s Independence Day.

While tensions between Turkey and Israel are increasing, political analysts speculate about Baku’s ability to maintain friendly relations with both countries at the same time. Tensions between Turkey and Israel have been on the rise since May 2010, when Israeli troops boarded a ship headed to Gaza. As Turkey’s leaders intensify efforts to isolate Israel internationally, Turkish Ambassador Hulusi Kilic has called on “brother Azerbaijan” to “reconsider its relations” with Israel.