Analytical Articles

India has sought the construction of an energy pipeline from Russia across Central Asia and China. This proposal shows the Indian wish to avoid energy dependence on Pakistan at any cost, despite the mounting energy needs in India. Although welcomed by Russia and China for further discussion, the feasibility of this pipeline project is highly doubtful for economic, technical, environmental, and security reasons. Whereas the idea could, if constructed, change the energy architecture of the region, it is highly unlikely to be endorsed by the Chinese government.

The new U.S.-Russian partnership expressly includes joint discussions and actions in Central Asia. As discussion on energy issues show, these discussions are not restricted to the war on terrorism. U.S. policymakers seem ready to grant Russia considerable influence in Central Asia, provided U.S. interests are also defended. This could become a durable basis for the external provision of security to the area, but there are potential problems that could erode the mutual confidence needed for partnership to work. One such problem is the future of Turkmenistan where the erratic and sultanistic regime of Sapirmurad Niyazov is clearly in grave trouble.

On June 19, Kazakh TV announced that the Pentagon had requested permission to use the Almaty civilian airport for U.S. military aircraft in the antiterrorist campaign in Afghanistan. This posed a dilemma to the Kazakhstani leadership, which is deeply divided on the whether Kazakhstan needs U.S. military bases. Kazakhstan remains strongly tied to the Russian security system through the CIS Security Treaty and bilateral security agreements. Opponents of the base argue that U.S. presence in Kazakhstan may jeopardize relations with Russia. Proponents argue that increasing U.S. military assistance to Tashkent has disturbed the strategic balance in Central Asia and given additional advantages to Kazakhstan’s long-time rival, Uzbekistan, and that only American help can restore that equilibrium.

Over the past five years, the United States and the European Union have emphasized the important role of countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia in the development of East-West energy and transport routes, linking Central and South Asia with Europe. Less noted, however, have been ongoing developments in the creation of North-South transport routes linking markets in South Asia with Europe via Iran and Russia. While recent analyses of Russian-Iranian relations have largely focused on weapons and technology transfers from Russia to Iran, the nascent North-South transport corridor signals an attempt to restore the historic trade of conventional commodities between South Asia and Europe. This project also demonstrates the common interest of regional countries to multiply the number of trade route options that extend north and south, as well as east and west.

In the tribal Afghan society, the most successful leaders have been traditional leaders, but for the past twenty years, governments - be they Communist, Mujahideen or Taliban - have attempted to employ nontraditional policies, and have failed. The current crisis will not be rectified until a new political strategy is adopted that is closely related to traditional institutions and has a large amount of tribal involvement. To convene a Loya Jirga is the only possible solution to create a legitimate government because it stays close to tradition and allows all tribes to voice their opinions.

According to two agreements signed by President Askar Akayev of Kyrgyzstan and Chairman Jiang Zemin of China in 1996 and 1999, Kyrgyzstan cedes about 125,000 hectares of land to China. The opposition accused the President of signing these agreements without consulting Parliament, violating the constitution. After six demonstrators were killed and 29 by police in the Jalal-Abad region in March, tensions increased between all involved groups, together with and under-the-rug struggle for power in the capital. Thorny border issues could be fueled by mass discontent in the economic and social spheres. Disastrous living standards, pandemic unemployment, increasing electricity fees, combined with poor governance and corruption, could push demonstrators to spontaneous and impulsive actions. unless a dialogue between the government and its opponents can be found.

In the war on terrorism the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or Shanghai-6 has been AWOL. Its failure to act effectively in this war not only highlights its failure to be a meaningful regional provider of security in Central Asia, it also reflects the erosion of Sino-Russian cooperation and the continuing failure of Central Asian states to devise a viable regional security mechanism. Thus it is not surprising that the Central Asian states have invited America into the region or that this presence alarms both China and Russian opponents of President Putin\'s current support for it. But it remains an open question as to whether external providers will continue to be necessary for the long-term provision of security against the multiple challenges to Central Asian governments and societies.

In the midst of the centralizing tendencies of the Putin administration in Russia, the ethnic republics are clinging to their constitutional autonomy and trying to preserve their sovereignty. Adygeya, where only 27% of the population are ethnic Adygey, has been the scene of a rising Russian nationalism that seeks to dismantle the republican status of the territory. Some observers have rather alarmingly called Adygeya a ‘second Chechnya in the making’, but the region has so far remained calm. If Moscow continues to lend support to the Russian nationalists in Adygeya, however, the situation may deteriorate.

General Tuncer Kilinc, Secretary-General of Turkey\'s National Security Council, recently shocked observers by stating that Turkey needed alternatives to the European Union, proposing that Turkey should seek, with support of USA, new allies in the East, namely Russia and Iran. The General argued that the EU held negative views on Turkey, has never assisted it, and agreed that ‘the EU is a Christian Club, a neo-colonialist force, and is determined to divide Turkey\'. General Kilinc’s views, though identified as personal, disclosed a severe conflict among Turkish elites on the country’s strategic choices. Kilinc\'s views reflect those of a strong ‘Eurasianist’ school of thought within the Turkish state.

Bloody turf wars emerged in Afghanistan in late April. In the north, Uzbek warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum\'s and Tajik warlord Atta Mohammed\'s forces clashed over two towns near Mazar-e-Sharif. In the east, two Pashtun warlords, Bacha Khan Zardan and Taj Mohammed Wardak, fought over the city of Gardez. This recent increase in fighting hints at the persistence of a suitable ground for international drug-trafficking in Afghanistan. The operation of this destructive \"industry\" will not only have security implications for Afghanistan and its neighbouring states, but also have a negative impact on ethnic and tribal relations and on the consolidation of the government and the reconstruction of the country