Analytical Articles

In 2000 Indian media attacked the government's policy as being 'directionless'.  This does not mean the absence of a policy or policies, but rather that they were uncoordinated, unfocused, and lacked an overall strategic concept that governed India's growing economic presence in Central Asia.  That situation is no longer the case.  Under pressure of the war on terrorism that has engulfed India and is the latest phase of its unresolved crises with Pakistan and due to its rising economic and strategic profile throughout Asia, India has launched new policy initiatives in Central Asia and beyond.

On August 24, Azerbaijan Republic faced the referendum on amendments and changes to Constitution. The falsified results of the second referendum in Azerbaijan's history showed that President Heydar Aliyev's regime inclines to use "Soviet" methods of management and use any chance for its reanimation. The Referendum strengthened the power of President, and diminished the role of parliament to the purely "decorative". At the same time, the changes to the Constitution could be assessed as an end of political struggle in Azerbaijan.

Although for the first time an Indian official has recognized the gross root realities of seriously needed Turkmenistani gas, particularly the gas supply transition to India via Pakistan, growing India Pakistan tensions added with hostile statements by India's Deputy Prime Minister question  India's participation in TAGP. Conflicting statements are likely to change Pakistan's previously unconditional offer on gas supply transition to India into a conditional one, delaying India's serious gas supply needs.

Recent weeks were marked by an increasing war of words between Iranian officials and the U.S. as well as debates in Washington on the practical strategy of military action against Iraq's Saddam Hussein in Iraq. The emphasis that Saddam should be ousted by US troops due to Iraq's program of development of weapons of mass destruction and Baghdad's support for anti-Israeli terrorist groups in the Middle East, makes Tehran nervous about the future course of Washington policies, since the same accusations have already been voiced by US officials against Tehran. All these may force Tehran to re-consider its policy in Afghanistan and to look for new means and resources in possible standoff with America.

The beauty of the global war against terrorism for many of its part-time participants is exactly in the opportunities to reward themselves along the way with many long-coveted prizes. Nobody is more aware of that than Russia's President Vladimir Putin who in fact had started his own counter-terrorist crusade two years prior to 9/11 and now keeps flashing the 'I-have-warned-you' Cheshirean smile. He is into much more than just 'bandwagoning'. While proclaiming the desire to ally Russia with the West, he wastes no chance to advance its strategic interests in the Caspian area and - unlike in his European offensive - much prefers power instruments to diplomacy.

The seven year prison sentence handed down to leading opposition politician Ghalymzhan Zhaqiyanov, former regional governor of Pavlodar, on 2nd August is the culmination of what many observers agree has been an unprecedented period of political repression in Kazakhstan's first decade of independent statehood. The neutralization of opposition through dubious criminal proceedings, the closure of independent media outlets and a stringent new law on the registration of political parties that could wipe out all constitutional opposition to the Nazarbayev regime, indicate a conscious attempt to flatten the political landscape in Kazakhstan. Yet, many in the democratic opposition sense that the clampdown has engendered a sea change in the organization and focus of opposition activity that may actually serve to enhance the prospects of democratic change.

Recent leaks regarding a possible swap of territories that the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan might have contemplated in an attempt to settle the 14-year-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh have prompted much debate in the south Caucasus. The status of Nagorno-Karabakh as \"de facto independent state-de jure part of Azerbaijan\" no longer constitutes a major problem and a remaining hurdle in the peace process is the issue of land corridors. Some details of an alleged deal on the issue were recently revealed by Azerbaijani President Aliyev and, as a reply, by Armenian President Kocharian. The disclosures can be interpreted by an assumption that the idea of exchanging territories has proven to be unrealistic and is no longer on the negotiating agenda.

Recent reports suggest that large numbers of books and journals in the Uyghur language have been burned by the Chinese authorities in Xinjiang.  Xinjiang University has also announced that it will no longer teach the majority of its courses through the medium of the Uyghur language, raising concerns about the long term future of this Turkic language and its culture. The latest campaign affects all Uyghurs, not solely the militants, and implicitly categorizes the Uyghur language as disloyal. This repression may be successful in the short-term, but only risks increasing Uyghur dissatisfaction in the longer term.

The post-September 11 emergence of a global consensus on fighting terrorism has created grounds for an opportunistic use of this broad objective by Central Asian countries, which have expanded suppression of opposition groups under the pretext of fighting terrorism. While the iron-hand policy towards opposition has been a fact of life in Uzbekistan since independence, the "democratic" regime of Kazakhstan has followed suit without concern about international condemnation. However, indiscriminate suppression of political dissent will not ensure the stability of the Central Asian political systems. Instead, it will contribute to the radicalization of their populations and to the growth of destabilizing extremist groups, and question the legitimacy of fighting terrorism as a global objective.

It is already clear that China is the big loser in the war on terrorism in Central Asia, if not elsewhere.  Virtually every plank of its strategic policy for enhancing its influence and lessening American influence in the area has failed and its weaknesses have been cruelly displayed to the world. Therefore, Beijing is now searching for a new strategy with which to regain influence and reduce the threats it perceives from Washington's rising presence in Central Asia.