Analytical Articles

Over the last several weeks, the issues related to the Caspian Sea have been thrust to the forefront of Iranian domestic politics. The policy pursued by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has become the object of criticism from various sides in and out of politics. It is obvious that Iran has to make its final decision on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Largely, the solution of the problem depends on whether Iran\'s stubborn stance will change into a more realistic one.

India\'s increasing military presence in and around Central Asia illustrates an ongoing process, namely that foreign states with important interests there are now beginning to project power into it. It also shows India\'s rising economic and military power reflected in its economic growth, rising exports to Central Asia, search for new energy sources, and growing indigenous defense capability. This, together with Indian threat perceptions, create motives, capabilities, and opportunities for projecting military power into Central Asia. India\'s activities are also proof of the increasing overlap or convergence of Central Asian security issues with those of other parts of Asia, especially South Asia.

In the wake of the wave of global instability generated by the U.S.-North Korean nuclear weapons disagreement, and beyond Iraq and the war on terrorism, a future crisis is looming which may derail U.S.-Russian relations and upset an uneasy geopolitical equilibrium in Eurasia between Russia, the U.S., Iran and Turkey. This is the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which will undoubtedly strain U.S.-Russian relations and may escalate friction in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In view of pending successions and state weakness in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and brittle regimes from Ashgabat to Bishkek, escalation of tensions between regional and international powers may be fraught with destabilizing consequences.

The lurid and tragic terrorist operation in Moscow and Russia's military action to rescue the captives inside a theater sheds a disturbing light upon the course of Russia's Chechen war.  This light shines equally upon the Chechens and the Russian government and military, and it shows that the implications of the Chechen operation and the Russian counter-terrorist action must be viewed with concern.

The November 3 parliamentary elections were tantamount to a political earthquake in Turkey. All former government parties and the entire opposition with the exception of the conservative AK Party failed to enter parliament. The AK Party, on the other hand, achieved a decisive and unparalleled victory, gaining a majority in the parliament. The government that the AKP will form, as well as its foreign policy decisions, will be monitored with great interest in the region and the leading capitals of the world. Contrary to general belief, the party leadership does not consider itself Islamist. How the election will affect Turkey's bid for EU membership is another matter.

The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, a coalition of six religious-oriented political parties, made great advances in the Pakistani general elections in early October. This has been widely seen as a reaction to President General Musharraf's pro-American policy, and as testimony to a growing religious wind in the country. Musharraf has even been blamed of boosting the religious parties in order to portray himself as the country's only possible saviour from radical Islam. However, this all misreads the elections as well as Musharraf's policies and the elections' implications for them.

When American forces were first deployed in Central Asia in October, Washington stated they were there for a limited purpose and would be withdrawn once the mission was completed. The deployment was not welcomed by Russia, China and Iran, though Russia chose not to oppose it. Since then, the U.S. build-up in the region has been out of proportion with the stated intention. Most recently, leading American representatives have publicly stated that the presence in Central Asia would not only be long-term but expand. This is likely to lead to a worsening of American relations with regional powers, including Russia.

For decades, if not longer, various Afghan ethnic groups have been used against each other by much more powerful neighbors. This first resulted in a bloody civil war among Afghans for power in Kabul, and later for expanding control to the provinces. Now that the U.S.-led anti-terrorist operation and broad international attention has generated new hopes for a peaceful and stable Afghanistan, the debate over whether it should adopt a federal structure or remain a unitary state has gained importance.

An October 7 meeting between Georgian president Eduard Shevardnadze and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin defused Russia's drive for military action in Georgia, but brought no breakthrough in bilateral relations. After Putin's September 11 ultimatum to Georgia, Georgian confidence in Russia will be difficult to restore.  The unprecedented tensions between the two countries have clearly stressed the need for more profound international involvement in the security architecture of the South Caucasus. While unveiling its new security doctrine, the Bush administration seems willing to address some gaping security voids of Georgia to mitigate threats to oil projects and the escalation of regional conflicts.

This autumn, an international consortium of oil companies finally broke ground for the much-heralded Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.  Azerbaijan nevertheless remains vulnerable to the so-called "Dutch disease," in which the export of one favored commodity crowds out development of other economic sectors. To attract and lock in long-term investment in the non-oil sectors, Azerbaijan has in its favor a relatively strong, centralized government with a responsible budgetary policy, and the support of highly influential Western multilateral aid agencies, which are committed towards pushing diversification of the country's economy.  But the low purchasing power of the local population and serious perceptions of corruption, as well as the potential for social unrest, are obstacles.