Analytical Articles

Al Qaeda is on the run and as the Taliban movement withers away, Mullah Omar has seemingly lost his political role. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been successful in slightly reducing the extent of the power grab of the Panjshiri Tajiks in Afghanistan’s government. This all bodes well for Afghanistan, but the battle is not over. Pashtun disaffection in the South or the country remains a reality, which has not yet been channeled or addressed. Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, whom America tried and failed to kill, is now using the underlying frustration to confront America in southern Afghanistan, posing a clear and present danger to stability and to U.S. forces.

During the first three weeks of January, something extremely unusual occurred in Uzbekistan. An individual who appeared to have close knowledge of the inner workings of the secretive and opaque Uzbek regime made numerous postings, containing sensational allegations about President Islam Karimov\'s health, elite corruption and factionalism, to an Internet site. Despite the government\'s attempts to block access to the site, the stories spread quickly around Tashkent and beyond within days, creating the biggest domestic political debate for years. Whilst the allegations remain unproven and their origin not definitively sourced, the speed with which they circulated and the interest with which they were received, may indicate a significant undercurrent of popular opposition to Karimov\'s regime.

Recent difficulties with the flagship Tengiz oil venture project are emblematic of problems that foreign investors fear will become general conditions under the new foreign investment regime in Kazakhstan, bringing international concern over the business environment there to a head. In early January, President Nursultan Nazarbayev signed a new foreign investment law to replace the one adopted in 1994. The new law removes guarantees against changes in government agreements with foreign concerns in the future, although protecting such guarantees for contracts already signed. It also puts into question the right of foreign investors to have automatic recourse to international arbitration courts and other forums outside Kazakhstan in case of contractual dispute.

Following the death of Amir Ibn al-Khattab last spring, there was speculation as to whether the foreign Islamist mujahidin would continue to play a large role in the Chechen struggle for independence from Russia. Khattab appears to have been replaced by a 35 year old Saudi, Abu al-Walid. Unlike the often flamboyant Khattab, al-Walid\' has a more reclusive style. Ample speculation surrounds him, incuding whether he exists at all. Al-Walid is an experienced and worthy successor to Khattab in the field. What remains to be seen is whether al-Walid can preserve the supply networks of volunteers and money under enormous international pressure is being applied to terminate these conduits.

As China continues its impressive economic growth, access to natural resources and raw materials is becoming increasingly vital, and will feature more prominently on the policy agenda of the decision makers in Beijing. If China seeks to maintain its economic growth rate of 1985-2000, it will face a major raw materials shortage and will be forced to focus on Eurasia as a source of major energy resources, water and food. This is likely to lead to growing economic and political involvement in Russia and Central Asia.

The armed forces of Uzbekistan have struggled during the past decade with the challenges presented by their Soviet heritage and the emerging security dynamics in Central Asia. Indeed the emergence of the volatile regional crime-terror nexus, coupled with militant Islam, has necessitated a conscious move towards developing forces capable of responding to Uzbekistan\'s security needs; countering terrorism and insurgency. U.S. military training and support for enhancing Uzbek security through their military capabilities is rapidly becoming a significant dynamic; and U.S.-Uzbek strategic partnership is the only way for Uzbekistan to achieve the goal of reformed combat-capable \'mobile\' forces.

On January 19, the Indo-Iranian defense cooperation agreement was signed in Tehran by India\'s Navy chief and chairman of the Chief of Staff Committee, and the Iranian minister of defense. The pact was said to be a prelude to the January 26 visit of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to New Delhi. The Iranian armed forces attaché in India Brig Gen Ali Motaghi said, \"We need India\'s help in all military aspects\" and called the agreement a milestone in defense ties between the two countries. This emerging Indo-Iranian strategic alliance could dramatically alter the political landscape in South Asia.

On December 27, a Kamaz military lorry and a UAZ jeep navigated their way through seven checkpoints and into the heart of the Russian administration\'s protected headquarters in the center of Grozny, Chechnya. The trucks rammed through the gate and set off the deadliest suicide bombing in Russian history, killing 72 people working for the Russian administration and destroying Russia\'s claim to have restored order in Chechnya. Moscow quickly blamed links to Afghanistan and Arab militant groups, prompting a reappraisal of Chechnya\'s links to the \"Islamic extremist international\".

The new regional order in the post-September 11 era speeded up developments in Central Asian states\' domestic politics, and fundamentally shifted the existing status of international relations among Central Asian countries. Despite the demise of external threats to regional security, Central Asian states have been experiencing growing domestic turbulence and a deteriorating economic situation. New forces challenge central authorities, based on clan and regional power brokers, and the mounting complexity of the problems and the increasing tendency of use violent actions are now posing a serious threat to the smaller and weaker states of the region.

Speculations are increasing in the Caucasus as to the region\'s role in a U.S. war against Iraq. Like Georgia, Azerbaijan is weighing the benefits and risks of supporting a U.S. military action. Having already contributed a platoon each to the peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan, such a move would strengthen Azerbaijan\'s link to NATO and its integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. However, such a move, while improving relations with the U.S., would also endanger Baku\'s relations with Moscow and its rapprochement with Tehran.