Analytical Articles

The new regional order in the post-September 11 era speeded up developments in Central Asian states\' domestic politics, and fundamentally shifted the existing status of international relations among Central Asian countries. Despite the demise of external threats to regional security, Central Asian states have been experiencing growing domestic turbulence and a deteriorating economic situation. New forces challenge central authorities, based on clan and regional power brokers, and the mounting complexity of the problems and the increasing tendency of use violent actions are now posing a serious threat to the smaller and weaker states of the region.

The armed forces of Uzbekistan have struggled during the past decade with the challenges presented by their Soviet heritage and the emerging security dynamics in Central Asia. Indeed the emergence of the volatile regional crime-terror nexus, coupled with militant Islam, has necessitated a conscious move towards developing forces capable of responding to Uzbekistan\'s security needs; countering terrorism and insurgency. U.S. military training and support for enhancing Uzbek security through their military capabilities is rapidly becoming a significant dynamic; and U.S.-Uzbek strategic partnership is the only way for Uzbekistan to achieve the goal of reformed combat-capable \'mobile\' forces.

On January 19, the Indo-Iranian defense cooperation agreement was signed in Tehran by India\'s Navy chief and chairman of the Chief of Staff Committee, and the Iranian minister of defense. The pact was said to be a prelude to the January 26 visit of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami to New Delhi. The Iranian armed forces attaché in India Brig Gen Ali Motaghi said, \"We need India\'s help in all military aspects\" and called the agreement a milestone in defense ties between the two countries. This emerging Indo-Iranian strategic alliance could dramatically alter the political landscape in South Asia.

Speculations are increasing in the Caucasus as to the region\'s role in a U.S. war against Iraq. Like Georgia, Azerbaijan is weighing the benefits and risks of supporting a U.S. military action. Having already contributed a platoon each to the peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan, such a move would strengthen Azerbaijan\'s link to NATO and its integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. However, such a move, while improving relations with the U.S., would also endanger Baku\'s relations with Moscow and its rapprochement with Tehran.

Over the last several weeks, the issues related to the Caspian Sea have been thrust to the forefront of Iranian domestic politics. The policy pursued by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has become the object of criticism from various sides in and out of politics. It is obvious that Iran has to make its final decision on the legal status of the Caspian Sea. Largely, the solution of the problem depends on whether Iran\'s stubborn stance will change into a more realistic one.

India\'s increasing military presence in and around Central Asia illustrates an ongoing process, namely that foreign states with important interests there are now beginning to project power into it. It also shows India\'s rising economic and military power reflected in its economic growth, rising exports to Central Asia, search for new energy sources, and growing indigenous defense capability. This, together with Indian threat perceptions, create motives, capabilities, and opportunities for projecting military power into Central Asia. India\'s activities are also proof of the increasing overlap or convergence of Central Asian security issues with those of other parts of Asia, especially South Asia.

In the wake of the wave of global instability generated by the U.S.-North Korean nuclear weapons disagreement, and beyond Iraq and the war on terrorism, a future crisis is looming which may derail U.S.-Russian relations and upset an uneasy geopolitical equilibrium in Eurasia between Russia, the U.S., Iran and Turkey. This is the Iranian nuclear weapons program, which will undoubtedly strain U.S.-Russian relations and may escalate friction in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In view of pending successions and state weakness in Georgia and Azerbaijan, and brittle regimes from Ashgabat to Bishkek, escalation of tensions between regional and international powers may be fraught with destabilizing consequences.

The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, a coalition of six religious-oriented political parties, made great advances in the Pakistani general elections in early October. This has been widely seen as a reaction to President General Musharraf's pro-American policy, and as testimony to a growing religious wind in the country. Musharraf has even been blamed of boosting the religious parties in order to portray himself as the country's only possible saviour from radical Islam. However, this all misreads the elections as well as Musharraf's policies and the elections' implications for them.

The lurid and tragic terrorist operation in Moscow and Russia's military action to rescue the captives inside a theater sheds a disturbing light upon the course of Russia's Chechen war.  This light shines equally upon the Chechens and the Russian government and military, and it shows that the implications of the Chechen operation and the Russian counter-terrorist action must be viewed with concern.

The November 3 parliamentary elections were tantamount to a political earthquake in Turkey. All former government parties and the entire opposition with the exception of the conservative AK Party failed to enter parliament. The AK Party, on the other hand, achieved a decisive and unparalleled victory, gaining a majority in the parliament. The government that the AKP will form, as well as its foreign policy decisions, will be monitored with great interest in the region and the leading capitals of the world. Contrary to general belief, the party leadership does not consider itself Islamist. How the election will affect Turkey's bid for EU membership is another matter.