Analytical Articles

Since the war in Iraq, Russia has launched a comprehensive effort to bring Central Asia and the CIS under its control using military and economic instruments of power to counter America’s presence there. These moves reflect the Russian military-political elite’s continuing unwillingness to forsake its hegemonic approach to Central Asia or to accept the legitimacy of America’s presence there as invited by local sovereign states. Apart from further militarizing Central Asia’s politics and stimulating its division into competing blocs, these new initiatives also aggravate declining U.S.-Russian relations and reflect an effort not only to subordinate key states to Moscow, but to surround and pressure Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most independent and strongest actor.

Energy experts took the Russian idea of a “Gas OPEC” with a grain of salt. This may be changing: on April 10-11, Russia and Turkmenistan signed a 25-year natural gas agreement which, if successful, is projected to sell 2 trillion cubic meters of gas, bringing the two sides half a trillion dollars in sales over its lifetime. Turkmenistan will sell increasing amounts of gas to Gazprom at $44 a cubic meter, while the price in Western European markets will be $80-100 per cubic meter. The reseller of gas is gaining more than the producer.

The collapse of President Aliyev once again brought the issue of succession and political stability in Azerbaijan to the top of the agenda. Opposition parties reacted to the incident with increased activism, while the ruling party seems to be in disorder. Fear of the President\'s demise has prompted local analysts to speculate on the post-Aliyev political situation in the country. Meanwhile, in the absence of the sole decision-maker, the socio-economic situation gradually enters the period of stagnation.

The Russia-China-India (RCI) strategic triangle was first proposed by former Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov during 1998-99 to project friendly cooperation, non-aggression, anti-terrorism and trusting strategic partnership between the three Eurasian powers to boost Commonwealth of Independent States and balance Russia’s post-Cold War relationships with multiplied economic and military cooperation against the increasing U.S. influence in Eurasia. Debates about unilateral vs. multilateral world order, particularly the new post-Iraq War power balance in the Middle East have revived bilateral discussions about RCI, this time aiming to develop a cooperative strategic understanding.

Georgia’s unwavering support for U.S. efforts in Iraq has contributed to Tbilisi’s image as Washington’s chief strategic partner in the Caucasus. Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze is capitalizing on this cooperation to facilitate and expedite Georgian membership into NATO. Goodwill alone, however, will prove insufficient to earn a place in NATO. The Georgian government must tackle a number of military matters to meet NATO standards. Some positive results on these measures are emerging, but for membership to become a reality, Tbilisi must overcome political and economic challenges as well as military development issues.

In June 2002, Kyrgyz Defense Minister Esen Topoyev announced that Kant airbase would be made available for CIS Collective Rapid Deployment Forces (CRDF), apparently signaling the intention of the Kyrgyz government to re-enter the fold and reorienting its security needs toward Moscow. This demonstrated that Bishkek looks for multiple security partners, including the West, to support its own fragile security. By November, components of the VVS began arriving at Kant, and further air movements soon followed this high profile deployment, with three Su-27 fighters from Lipetsk, two Su-25 attack planes from Dushanbe and two Il-76 military cargo planes constituting the total Russian deployment at Kant.

What appeared at first to be a serious but unfortunate accident involving a long distance bus travelling from the Kyrgyzstan capital, Bishkek to China took a more serious turn when it emerged that the passengers and drivers had been shot and killed before the bus caught fire. Diplomatic relations between China and Kyrgyzstan, already tense, were once again thrown into focus.

The governments of Azerbaijan and Georgia are benefiting from the international war on terrorism as a means of holding on to power. Azerbaijan recently passed a new law that will make it even more difficult for independent non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to operate. Meanwhile, Georgia is attempting to introduce a bill that could drastically undercut its vibrant civil society groups. Persistent vigilance is needed on the part of local NGOs and the international community in order to protect civil society groups in both countries and their fledging democratic institutions.

Last week, U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Ankara to try to mend fences with Turkey. Turkey is in dire financial straits, and dependent on multilateral financial aid, chiefly from the IMF and the World Bank. This aid forces Turkey to cut back on very important social expenditures while maintaining heavy military spending. The economic well-being of the Turkish public is likely to decline further. Prime Minister Erdogan’s January visit to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, geared towards increasing Turkish business in these countries, is unlikely to bear fruit for the time being. Currently, neither the public nor the private sector in Turkey has the will (or the cash) to push for further expansion of their economic influence in Central Asia.