Analytical Articles

Despite President George W. Bush’s and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s reassurances of strong mutual friendship during the celebration of the 300th anniversary of the founding of St. Petersburg in early June, the U.S. presence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia remains a major issue in the often-tense relationship between the U.S. and Russia. Russian political elites acknowledge that the presence of Western oil companies in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and the U.S. war against terrorism have attracted long-term American political and military presence there.

China is increasingly becoming a dominant actor in trade and investments all across Central Asia. This is the case not only in steel and energy, but also in areas dominated by small and medium size enterprises. As Central Asia is increasingly relying on China for trade, interdependence grows – China’s western provinces become increasingly reliant on Central Asia as well. Moreover, increasing Chinese investments is displacing Russia’s dominant role in the Central Asian economies. China aims of a 50-fold increase in trade in ten years may be utopian, but it nevertheless is set to become the dominant economic actor in the region.

Turkmen President Saparmurat Niyazov praised Turkmenistan\'s relations with Uzbekistan in mid-May less than six months after the Uzbek ambassador was declared persona non grata. He was subsequently forced to leave Ashgabad as he was accused of involvement in a November 2002 assassination attempt against Niyazov. The Turkmen authorities described the assassination attempt as a failed coup. As evident in Niyazov\'s remark, the sudden change of attitude towards Uzbekistan indicates Ashgabad\'s efforts to break its mainly self-imposed isolation. Abrupt changes in its policies, such as its May decision to withdraw from the dual-citizenship agreement with Russia, have worsened this situation.

For the last 10 years, President of Turkmenistan Saparmurad Niyazov became famous, among other extraordinary actions, by the announcement of a number of gas pipeline projects in every possible direction, which never materialized. After being subdued to Russian dominance because of a foreign-orchestrated assassination attempt, the Turkmen president came up with another pipeline project: Turkmenistan-Kazakhstan-Russia, in addition to already existing and operating 5 pipelines in the Northern direction. This raises questions as to the implications for Turkmenistan, but also regarding the developing international environment in Central Asia.

The Islamic radical party Hizb-ut-Tahrir has recently been issuing aggressive new statements throughout southern Kazakhstan, calling for jihad against the U.S. and Britain. In a clear attempt to make political gains from regional uneasiness about the recent war in Iraq, this propaganda offensive points to a deviation from the party\'s usual targets of criticism; secular regional governments and the state of Israel. While such propaganda is unlikely to find a receptive audience in Kazakhstan, the Kazakh government of Nursultan Nazarbayev will have to act wisely in stemming the potential influence of a party which has proved elsewhere to be capable of thriving amid rigid controls by the state.

On May 28 and 29, the Heads of State of the Member Nations of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) met in Moscow to transform the SCO from a mere talk shop to a \"full-fledged\" international organization. While it remains to be seen how long these new commitments will last, the SCO has received a new infusion of life that should allow it to develop rapidly in the short-term. Still many questions remain about the true intentions of the individual SCO members and what role the organization will play in the rapidly changing strategic environment of Central Asia and the balance-of-power diplomacy of China, Russia, and the United States.

As a logical outcome of a decade of close relations, Georgia was one of dozens of states that allied with the U.S. in its battle against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. American assistance has been crucial to Georgia’s survival since the second half of the 1990s. However, major internal and external dilemmas are presently confronting both Georgia and the U.S. These lie in Georgia’s complex relations with Russia, but more deeply also in the democratic development of Georgian statehood.

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai visited Pakistan on April 22-23. His trip to Islamabad came amid growing suspicion in Afghanistan that Islamabad is supporting remnants of the former Taliban regime, and soon after a border clash between Pakistan and Afghan forces. The atmosphere during his visit remained positive and he declared that Pakistan and Afghanistan only have a bright future in front of them. The trip also highlighted trade relations, where some improvements have been done but where considerable amounts of work need to be done in order to realize the full potential of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.

A recent burst of militancy amongst Russia\'s usually complacent Islamic leadership in response to U.S. action in Iraq has alarmed many observers. But two declarations of jihad against the U.S. may have more to do with an internal struggle for control of Russia\'s Islamic community. They are nonetheless new irritants in US-Russian relations before President Bush\'s visit to Moscow, which takes place amid U.S. disappointment with Russia\'s stand on Iraq, growing tensions over the new U.S.-Georgia relationship, the flight of several unmanned US drones into Russian airspace, and revelations from captured documents that show recent Russian intelligence cooperation with Saddam\'s regime.

In spite of the well-known divisions within the Transatlantic alliance, NATO is evolving and trying to move with the requirements of the times. Nowhere is this more evident than in its impending takeover of the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force), the peace enforcement operation in Kabul and across Afghanistan. This move is timely since by all accounts the situation in Afghanistan has not stabilized. Al-Qaeda groups and the Taliban have reorganized and are mounting an increasing number of attacks, while there is evidence to suggest that they are receiving assistance from opposition forces to President Musharraf in Pakistan. Under the circumstances, a NATO takeover of the operation is not just timely but also clearly warranted.