Analytical Articles

A recent burst of militancy amongst Russia\'s usually complacent Islamic leadership in response to U.S. action in Iraq has alarmed many observers. But two declarations of jihad against the U.S. may have more to do with an internal struggle for control of Russia\'s Islamic community. They are nonetheless new irritants in US-Russian relations before President Bush\'s visit to Moscow, which takes place amid U.S. disappointment with Russia\'s stand on Iraq, growing tensions over the new U.S.-Georgia relationship, the flight of several unmanned US drones into Russian airspace, and revelations from captured documents that show recent Russian intelligence cooperation with Saddam\'s regime.

In spite of the well-known divisions within the Transatlantic alliance, NATO is evolving and trying to move with the requirements of the times. Nowhere is this more evident than in its impending takeover of the ISAF (International Security Assistance Force), the peace enforcement operation in Kabul and across Afghanistan. This move is timely since by all accounts the situation in Afghanistan has not stabilized. Al-Qaeda groups and the Taliban have reorganized and are mounting an increasing number of attacks, while there is evidence to suggest that they are receiving assistance from opposition forces to President Musharraf in Pakistan. Under the circumstances, a NATO takeover of the operation is not just timely but also clearly warranted.

As a logical outcome of a decade of close relations, Georgia was one of dozens of states that allied with the U.S. in its battle against Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. American assistance has been crucial to Georgia’s survival since the second half of the 1990s. However, major internal and external dilemmas are presently confronting both Georgia and the U.S. These lie in Georgia’s complex relations with Russia, but more deeply also in the democratic development of Georgian statehood.

Afghanistan’s President Hamid Karzai visited Pakistan on April 22-23. His trip to Islamabad came amid growing suspicion in Afghanistan that Islamabad is supporting remnants of the former Taliban regime, and soon after a border clash between Pakistan and Afghan forces. The atmosphere during his visit remained positive and he declared that Pakistan and Afghanistan only have a bright future in front of them. The trip also highlighted trade relations, where some improvements have been done but where considerable amounts of work need to be done in order to realize the full potential of the Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.

Energy experts took the Russian idea of a “Gas OPEC” with a grain of salt. This may be changing: on April 10-11, Russia and Turkmenistan signed a 25-year natural gas agreement which, if successful, is projected to sell 2 trillion cubic meters of gas, bringing the two sides half a trillion dollars in sales over its lifetime. Turkmenistan will sell increasing amounts of gas to Gazprom at $44 a cubic meter, while the price in Western European markets will be $80-100 per cubic meter. The reseller of gas is gaining more than the producer.

The collapse of President Aliyev once again brought the issue of succession and political stability in Azerbaijan to the top of the agenda. Opposition parties reacted to the incident with increased activism, while the ruling party seems to be in disorder. Fear of the President\'s demise has prompted local analysts to speculate on the post-Aliyev political situation in the country. Meanwhile, in the absence of the sole decision-maker, the socio-economic situation gradually enters the period of stagnation.

The Russia-China-India (RCI) strategic triangle was first proposed by former Russian Foreign Minister Yevgeny Primakov during 1998-99 to project friendly cooperation, non-aggression, anti-terrorism and trusting strategic partnership between the three Eurasian powers to boost Commonwealth of Independent States and balance Russia’s post-Cold War relationships with multiplied economic and military cooperation against the increasing U.S. influence in Eurasia. Debates about unilateral vs. multilateral world order, particularly the new post-Iraq War power balance in the Middle East have revived bilateral discussions about RCI, this time aiming to develop a cooperative strategic understanding.

Since the war in Iraq, Russia has launched a comprehensive effort to bring Central Asia and the CIS under its control using military and economic instruments of power to counter America’s presence there. These moves reflect the Russian military-political elite’s continuing unwillingness to forsake its hegemonic approach to Central Asia or to accept the legitimacy of America’s presence there as invited by local sovereign states. Apart from further militarizing Central Asia’s politics and stimulating its division into competing blocs, these new initiatives also aggravate declining U.S.-Russian relations and reflect an effort not only to subordinate key states to Moscow, but to surround and pressure Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most independent and strongest actor.

In June 2002, Kyrgyz Defense Minister Esen Topoyev announced that Kant airbase would be made available for CIS Collective Rapid Deployment Forces (CRDF), apparently signaling the intention of the Kyrgyz government to re-enter the fold and reorienting its security needs toward Moscow. This demonstrated that Bishkek looks for multiple security partners, including the West, to support its own fragile security. By November, components of the VVS began arriving at Kant, and further air movements soon followed this high profile deployment, with three Su-27 fighters from Lipetsk, two Su-25 attack planes from Dushanbe and two Il-76 military cargo planes constituting the total Russian deployment at Kant.